OpenAI's Codex coding agent has experienced repeated service disruptions in recent weeks, including a 56-minute full outage on September 25 affecting its web app, API, CLI, and VS Code extension, plus degraded performance incidents on September 29 and October 7. These events, which prompted usage limit resets for paid users and highlighted internal scaling challenges, have reinforced trader views that reliability issues persist amid growing adoption of the large language model-based tool. With multiple confirmed incidents since late September and ongoing demand pressures on OpenAI's infrastructure, market-implied odds reflect strong consensus that another outage remains likely before year-end.