**No at 89.5% reflects the low likelihood of a second Clacton by-election before year-end.** Nigel Farage triggered and won the August 2026 contest after resigning amid a parliamentary standards probe into a £5 million donation, securing 63.3% of the vote against a crowded field that included novelty candidate Count Binface. The probe resumed immediately after his victory, but any path to another by-election requires the standards commissioner to complete its review, a Commons committee to recommend suspension for at least 10 sitting days, and a successful recall petition backed by 10% of constituents. These sequential steps typically span many months, making completion before the end of 2026 improbable. No major-party candidates contested the prior vote, turnout was modest, and no fresh catalyst has accelerated the process or shifted the timeline. Traders therefore price a further vacancy in 2026 as remote, consistent with historical patterns for standards-related recalls.