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Технологии·Безос

Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?

icon for Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?
Технологии·Безос

Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?

12% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
12% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Blue Origin's New Glenn heavy-lift rocket suffered a catastrophic explosion during a static-fire test at Cape Canaveral on May 28, 2026, destroying the vehicle and severely damaging its sole Florida launch pad. This latest failure follows earlier setbacks and has prompted extended pauses in New Glenn operations, with analysts expecting no flights before 2027 amid major infrastructure repairs. Meanwhile, the smaller New Shepard suborbital program remains paused through at least late 2027 to redirect resources toward lunar lander development. With no launches scheduled through October, traders assign an 87.5% implied probability that no additional Blue Origin rocket will explode by the deadline, reflecting the immediate operational stand-down and extended timeline for recovery.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$51
Дата окончания
31 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Blue Origin's New Glenn heavy-lift rocket suffered a catastrophic explosion during a static-fire test at Cape Canaveral on May 28, 2026, destroying the vehicle and severely damaging its sole Florida launch pad. This latest failure follows earlier setbacks and has prompted extended pauses in New Glenn operations, with analysts expecting no flights before 2027 amid major infrastructure repairs. Meanwhile, the smaller New Shepard suborbital program remains paused through at least late 2027 to redirect resources toward lunar lander development. With no launches scheduled through October, traders assign an 87.5% implied probability that no additional Blue Origin rocket will explode by the deadline, reflecting the immediate operational stand-down and extended timeline for recovery.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$51
Дата окончания
31 окт. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 1, 2026, 9:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any unmanned rocket owned or operated by Blue Origin explodes at any point during a launch, launch test, hot-fire test, or other testing operation between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). The resolution source for this market will be official information from Blue Origin; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 12% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 12¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 12%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Jun 1, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?», просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?» составляет 12% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 12%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.