Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his Makerfield seat in mid-May 2026 to trigger a by-election explicitly enabling Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand as the Labour candidate, with the National Executive Committee granting approval shortly afterward. The contest is scheduled for 18 June, placing the outcome well before the 30 June market resolution date. Traders assign 77.5% probability to a Yes outcome because Burnham enters as the clear frontrunner in a constituency that has historically returned Labour MPs, though recent local results have shown Reform UK strength in parts of the area. No procedural or eligibility barriers remain, and the short timeline leaves limited scope for intervening events to alter the result.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЭнди Бернхэм станет депутатом к 30 июня?
Энди Бернхэм станет депутатом к 30 июня?
Да
$57,521 Объем
$57,521 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$57,521 Объем
$57,521 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Andy Burnham officially assumes the position of Member of Parliament for any seat in the United Kingdom House of Commons by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his Makerfield seat in mid-May 2026 to trigger a by-election explicitly enabling Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand as the Labour candidate, with the National Executive Committee granting approval shortly afterward. The contest is scheduled for 18 June, placing the outcome well before the 30 June market resolution date. Traders assign 77.5% probability to a Yes outcome because Burnham enters as the clear frontrunner in a constituency that has historically returned Labour MPs, though recent local results have shown Reform UK strength in parts of the area. No procedural or eligibility barriers remain, and the short timeline leaves limited scope for intervening events to alter the result.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Andy Burnham officially assumes the position of Member of Parliament for any seat in the United Kingdom House of Commons by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Объем
$57,521Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Andy Burnham officially assumes the position of Member of Parliament for any seat in the United Kingdom House of Commons by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his Makerfield seat in mid-May 2026 to trigger a by-election explicitly enabling Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand as the Labour candidate, with the National Executive Committee granting approval shortly afterward. The contest is scheduled for 18 June, placing the outcome well before the 30 June market resolution date. Traders assign 77.5% probability to a Yes outcome because Burnham enters as the clear frontrunner in a constituency that has historically returned Labour MPs, though recent local results have shown Reform UK strength in parts of the area. No procedural or eligibility barriers remain, and the short timeline leaves limited scope for intervening events to alter the result.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Andy Burnham officially assumes the position of Member of Parliament for any seat in the United Kingdom House of Commons by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$57,521Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Labour MP Josh Simons resigned his Makerfield seat in mid-May 2026 to trigger a by-election explicitly enabling Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand as the Labour candidate, with the National Executive Committee granting approval shortly afterward. The contest is scheduled for 18 June, placing the outcome well before the 30 June market resolution date. Traders assign 77.5% probability to a Yes outcome because Burnham enters as the clear frontrunner in a constituency that has historically returned Labour MPs, though recent local results have shown Reform UK strength in parts of the area. No procedural or eligibility barriers remain, and the short timeline leaves limited scope for intervening events to alter the result.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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