Omar Aziz (PSD) leads the Amazonas governor race at 86.5% implied probability after capturing 40.6% in the October 4 first round and advancing to the October 25 runoff against Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 13%. Aziz won 53 of 62 municipalities, dominating interior strongholds with broad coalition support from PSD, MDB, Republicanos, and allied parties, while Maria do Carmo prevailed narrowly in Manaus and two other cities. Incumbent Roberto Cidade (União Brasil) finished third at roughly 22%, and lower-polling candidates including David Almeida were eliminated. Aziz’s prior governorship and Senate tenure, combined with stronger interior turnout patterns, underpin trader consensus ahead of the runoff.