Trump's May 2025 directive and April 2026 budget request of $152 million for fiscal year 2027 to rebuild Alcatraz as a federal prison have not advanced beyond feasibility studies by the Bureau of Prisons. The island remains under National Park Service management as a major tourist site, with scheduled dock repairs confirming continued public access through late 2026. Congressional appropriation, legislative transfer of the site, environmental reviews, and infrastructure upgrades for water, power, and security would all be required, none of which have occurred. Historical operating costs, logistical isolation, and opposition further constrain rapid conversion. Trader consensus at 97.5% for no reopening in 2026 reflects these procedural and practical barriers, though late-session budget action or executive acceleration could theoretically alter the timeline before year-end.