Strong trader consensus for “No” on an AI artwork reaching $10 million at a major auction in 2026 stems from persistent price gaps in verified sales. The highest confirmed hammer price remains Ai-Da’s “AI God” at roughly $1.08 million in late 2024, while Christie’s dedicated 2025 “Augmented Intelligence” sale peaked at $277,200 for a Refik Anadol data painting and totaled under $730,000 overall. Ongoing questions around authorship, training-data provenance, and collector willingness to pay blue-chip premiums have kept AI-generated pieces in a distinct, lower tier despite growing institutional interest. With only months remaining and no recent catalysts signaling rapid escalation, the market-implied odds reflect realistic barriers. A late-year surprise from an established artist leveraging advanced large language model tools or a major museum endorsement could still shift outcomes, though such moves have yet to materialize.