Mailza Assis (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Gladson Cameli stepped down to run for Senate, secured 49.76% in the October 4 first round and advanced to the October 25 runoff against Alan Rick (Republicanos), who received 32.27%. She won 19 of 22 municipalities, reflecting broad coalition backing from parties including MDB, PL, and PDT alongside strong regional support in key areas like Rio Branco. Traders assign her a 97.2% implied probability due to this commanding lead and the brief three-week campaign window limiting the challenger's ability to mobilize remaining voters from eliminated candidates such as Tião Bocalom and Thor Dantas. A decisive shift could still occur through consolidated opposition turnout, effective debate performances by Rick, or late developments affecting voter sentiment before the second round.