Major AI labs remain tightly clustered in the race to claim the third-strongest model by end of October under style-control benchmarks, with Meta holding the highest implied probability at 31.5 percent. Recent releases and capability updates from Meta, Google, and OpenAI have kept performance gaps narrow on controllable generation tasks, while Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot continue to close the distance through rapid iteration on open-weight and specialized models. Traders are watching for upcoming developer conferences, benchmark releases, and any new fine-tuning techniques that could shift relative rankings before the deadline. The market reflects ongoing uncertainty around which lab can best combine raw capability with precise style adherence in the next six weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено#3 Лаборатория ИИ в конце октября? (Управление стилем включено)
#3 Лаборатория ИИ в конце октября? (Управление стилем включено)
Meta 32%
Google 26%
OpenAI 15.6%
Alibaba 14%
$40,857 Объем
$40,857 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
Meta
32%
26%
OpenAI
16%
Alibaba
14%
Anthropic
9%
Moonshot
5%
Z.ai
4%
Mistral
4%
Baidu
4%
SpaceXAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Xiaomi
1%
ByteDance
1%
Thinky
1%
Amazon
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta 32%
Google 26%
OpenAI 15.6%
Alibaba 14%
$40,857 Объем
$40,857 Объем
31 окт. 2026 г.
Meta
$6,351 Объем
32%
$17,626 Объем
26%
OpenAI
$4,575 Объем
16%
Alibaba
$5,356 Объем
14%
Anthropic
$565 Объем
9%
Moonshot
$469 Объем
5%
Z.ai
$337 Объем
4%
Mistral
$404 Объем
4%
Baidu
$320 Объем
4%
SpaceXAI
$309 Объем
3%
DeepSeek
$299 Объем
1%
Xiaomi
$507 Объем
1%
ByteDance
$514 Объем
1%
Thinky
$385 Объем
1%
Amazon
$398 Объем
1%
MiniMax
$400 Объем
1%
Meituan
$546 Объем
1%
Nvidia
$375 Объем
1%
Tencent
$385 Объем
1%
Microsoft
$360 Объем
1%
StepFun
$375 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Major AI labs remain tightly clustered in the race to claim the third-strongest model by end of October under style-control benchmarks, with Meta holding the highest implied probability at 31.5 percent. Recent releases and capability updates from Meta, Google, and OpenAI have kept performance gaps narrow on controllable generation tasks, while Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot continue to close the distance through rapid iteration on open-weight and specialized models. Traders are watching for upcoming developer conferences, benchmark releases, and any new fine-tuning techniques that could shift relative rankings before the deadline. The market reflects ongoing uncertainty around which lab can best combine raw capability with precise style adherence in the next six weeks.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Объем
$40,857Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Major AI labs remain tightly clustered in the race to claim the third-strongest model by end of October under style-control benchmarks, with Meta holding the highest implied probability at 31.5 percent. Recent releases and capability updates from Meta, Google, and OpenAI have kept performance gaps narrow on controllable generation tasks, while Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot continue to close the distance through rapid iteration on open-weight and specialized models. Traders are watching for upcoming developer conferences, benchmark releases, and any new fine-tuning techniques that could shift relative rankings before the deadline. The market reflects ongoing uncertainty around which lab can best combine raw capability with precise style adherence in the next six weeks.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Объем
$40,857Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Major AI labs remain tightly clustered in the race to claim the third-strongest model by end of October under style-control benchmarks, with Meta holding the highest implied probability at 31.5 percent. Recent releases and capability updates from Meta, Google, and OpenAI have kept performance gaps narrow on controllable generation tasks, while Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot continue to close the distance through rapid iteration on open-weight and specialized models. Traders are watching for upcoming developer conferences, benchmark releases, and any new fine-tuning techniques that could shift relative rankings before the deadline. The market reflects ongoing uncertainty around which lab can best combine raw capability with precise style adherence in the next six weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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