Recent generic ballot polls, including Harvard/Harris (March 25-26) showing Democrats ahead 52-48 among likely voters and Quinnipiac (March 19-23) with a 51-40 Democratic edge, have solidified trader consensus around a narrow Democratic popular vote lead of 4-6% (27.5%) or 8-10% (24%), reflecting averages of roughly 4-8 points. President Trump's 46% approval in the latest survey underscores historical midterm disadvantages for the incumbent party, which typically loses about 3 points nationally. High odds on "Other" (45.5%) capture early-cycle uncertainty seven months from Election Day, amid first primaries on March 4 yielding mixed results and ongoing redistricting disputes in battleground states that could narrow margins. Upcoming polls and candidate announcements may shift probabilities further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоDemocrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 16%+ 18.9%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Republicans 6%+ 13.9%
$27,856 Объем
$27,856 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrats 16%+
19%
Democrats 14-16%
8%
Democrats 12-14%
8%
Democrats 10-12%
9%
Democrats 8-10%
24%
Democrats 6-8%
22%
Democrats 4-6%
28%
Democrats 2-4%
24%
Democrats 0-2%
9%
Republicans 0-2%
19%
Republicans 2-4%
11%
Republicans 4-6%
4%
Republicans 6%+
14%
Democrats 6-8% 19%
Democrats 16%+ 18.9%
Democrats 8-10% 17%
Republicans 6%+ 13.9%
$27,856 Объем
$27,856 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Democrats 16%+
$0 Объем
19%
Democrats 14-16%
$0 Объем
8%
Democrats 12-14%
$0 Объем
8%
Democrats 10-12%
$0 Объем
9%
Democrats 8-10%
$0 Объем
24%
Democrats 6-8%
$0 Объем
22%
Democrats 4-6%
$0 Объем
28%
Democrats 2-4%
$734 Объем
24%
Democrats 0-2%
$806 Объем
9%
Republicans 0-2%
$0 Объем
19%
Republicans 2-4%
$25,691 Объем
11%
Republicans 4-6%
$0 Объем
4%
Republicans 6%+
$626 Объем
14%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polls, including Harvard/Harris (March 25-26) showing Democrats ahead 52-48 among likely voters and Quinnipiac (March 19-23) with a 51-40 Democratic edge, have solidified trader consensus around a narrow Democratic popular vote lead of 4-6% (27.5%) or 8-10% (24%), reflecting averages of roughly 4-8 points. President Trump's 46% approval in the latest survey underscores historical midterm disadvantages for the incumbent party, which typically loses about 3 points nationally. High odds on "Other" (45.5%) capture early-cycle uncertainty seven months from Election Day, amid first primaries on March 4 yielding mixed results and ongoing redistricting disputes in battleground states that could narrow margins. Upcoming polls and candidate announcements may shift probabilities further.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Объем
$27,856Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot polls, including Harvard/Harris (March 25-26) showing Democrats ahead 52-48 among likely voters and Quinnipiac (March 19-23) with a 51-40 Democratic edge, have solidified trader consensus around a narrow Democratic popular vote lead of 4-6% (27.5%) or 8-10% (24%), reflecting averages of roughly 4-8 points. President Trump's 46% approval in the latest survey underscores historical midterm disadvantages for the incumbent party, which typically loses about 3 points nationally. High odds on "Other" (45.5%) capture early-cycle uncertainty seven months from Election Day, amid first primaries on March 4 yielding mixed results and ongoing redistricting disputes in battleground states that could narrow margins. Upcoming polls and candidate announcements may shift probabilities further.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Объем
$27,856Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot polls, including Harvard/Harris (March 25-26) showing Democrats ahead 52-48 among likely voters and Quinnipiac (March 19-23) with a 51-40 Democratic edge, have solidified trader consensus around a narrow Democratic popular vote lead of 4-6% (27.5%) or 8-10% (24%), reflecting averages of roughly 4-8 points. President Trump's 46% approval in the latest survey underscores historical midterm disadvantages for the incumbent party, which typically loses about 3 points nationally. High odds on "Other" (45.5%) capture early-cycle uncertainty seven months from Election Day, amid first primaries on March 4 yielding mixed results and ongoing redistricting disputes in battleground states that could narrow margins. Upcoming polls and candidate announcements may shift probabilities further.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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