Houthi attacks targeting Saudi-linked vessels have reduced Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 20-30 ships daily in recent weeks, down sharply from pre-crisis norms near 50, yet IMF PortWatch data confirm the corridor remains open with no recorded zero-transit days. Selective threats, naval escorts by Indian and other forces, and continued loadings at Yanbu sustain tanker and bulk flows even as container operators favor Cape of Good Hope routing to avoid war-risk premiums and potential strikes. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low odds to a complete shutdown by year-end because Houthi actions focus on specific flags rather than blanket closure, while economic incentives for shorter Suez routing persist amid elevated insurance costs and 10-14 day detours. Key near-term catalysts include further Houthi territorial moves along Yemen’s coast and weekly PortWatch updates that could test the resilience of current volumes.