Russian forces have intensified infiltration and assault operations toward Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast, a key gateway settlement east of Sloviansk, as part of broader efforts to advance on the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration. Geolocated reports through early September 2026 confirm Russian units reached the southern and southeastern outskirts, with Ukrainian clearing operations capturing Russian personnel inside the settlement, indicating prior entry into portions of the area. Ukrainian 81st Brigade and supporting units continue to contest apartment blocks and eastern edges while conducting counteractions and strikes on logistics. Russian advances across Donetsk remain incremental at roughly 2-3 square kilometers per day amid high attrition and Ukrainian drone and artillery resistance. Trader consensus reflects these tactical gains and the absence of decisive Ukrainian counteroffensives, pricing a strong likelihood of further territorial capture by year-end but uncertainty around near-term deadlines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA Rússia entrará em Mykolaivka até...?
A Rússia entrará em Mykolaivka até...?
$187,150 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 de setembro
74%
31 de dezembro
94%
$187,150 Vol.
30 de setembro
$130,869 Vol.
74%
31 de dezembro
$56,286 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have intensified infiltration and assault operations toward Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast, a key gateway settlement east of Sloviansk, as part of broader efforts to advance on the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration. Geolocated reports through early September 2026 confirm Russian units reached the southern and southeastern outskirts, with Ukrainian clearing operations capturing Russian personnel inside the settlement, indicating prior entry into portions of the area. Ukrainian 81st Brigade and supporting units continue to contest apartment blocks and eastern edges while conducting counteractions and strikes on logistics. Russian advances across Donetsk remain incremental at roughly 2-3 square kilometers per day amid high attrition and Ukrainian drone and artillery resistance. Trader consensus reflects these tactical gains and the absence of decisive Ukrainian counteroffensives, pricing a strong likelihood of further territorial capture by year-end but uncertainty around near-term deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 5, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$187,150Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have intensified infiltration and assault operations toward Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast, a key gateway settlement east of Sloviansk, as part of broader efforts to advance on the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration. Geolocated reports through early September 2026 confirm Russian units reached the southern and southeastern outskirts, with Ukrainian clearing operations capturing Russian personnel inside the settlement, indicating prior entry into portions of the area. Ukrainian 81st Brigade and supporting units continue to contest apartment blocks and eastern edges while conducting counteractions and strikes on logistics. Russian advances across Donetsk remain incremental at roughly 2-3 square kilometers per day amid high attrition and Ukrainian drone and artillery resistance. Trader consensus reflects these tactical gains and the absence of decisive Ukrainian counteroffensives, pricing a strong likelihood of further territorial capture by year-end but uncertainty around near-term deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$187,150Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have intensified infiltration and assault operations toward Mykolaivka in Donetsk Oblast, a key gateway settlement east of Sloviansk, as part of broader efforts to advance on the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration. Geolocated reports through early September 2026 confirm Russian units reached the southern and southeastern outskirts, with Ukrainian clearing operations capturing Russian personnel inside the settlement, indicating prior entry into portions of the area. Ukrainian 81st Brigade and supporting units continue to contest apartment blocks and eastern edges while conducting counteractions and strikes on logistics. Russian advances across Donetsk remain incremental at roughly 2-3 square kilometers per day amid high attrition and Ukrainian drone and artillery resistance. Trader consensus reflects these tactical gains and the absence of decisive Ukrainian counteroffensives, pricing a strong likelihood of further territorial capture by year-end but uncertainty around near-term deadlines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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