Nigel Farage's decisive victory in the August 2026 Clacton by-election has locked in trader consensus at near-certainty for an increased vote share. He secured 63.3% of the vote—up 17 points from his 46.2% in the 2024 general election—against a field dominated by novelty candidates after major parties boycotted the contest he triggered via resignation. Pre-election constituency polling from Survation showed him on track for roughly 73%, reflecting strong retention among Reform UK supporters in the constituency. With results now confirmed and turnout at 44%, only procedural steps such as an official declaration or any unforeseen recount could still alter the final tally for market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNigel Farage aumentará a sua participação de voto na Clacton?
Nigel Farage aumentará a sua participação de voto na Clacton?
Sim
>99% chance
$31,748 Vol.
$31,748 Vol.
13 ago 2026
Sim
>99% chance
$31,748 Vol.
$31,748 Vol.
13 ago 2026
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage's decisive victory in the August 2026 Clacton by-election has locked in trader consensus at near-certainty for an increased vote share. He secured 63.3% of the vote—up 17 points from his 46.2% in the 2024 general election—against a field dominated by novelty candidates after major parties boycotted the contest he triggered via resignation. Pre-election constituency polling from Survation showed him on track for roughly 73%, reflecting strong retention among Reform UK supporters in the constituency. With results now confirmed and turnout at 44%, only procedural steps such as an official declaration or any unforeseen recount could still alter the final tally for market resolution.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Mercado Aberto: Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Volume
$31,748Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage's decisive victory in the August 2026 Clacton by-election has locked in trader consensus at near-certainty for an increased vote share. He secured 63.3% of the vote—up 17 points from his 46.2% in the 2024 general election—against a field dominated by novelty candidates after major parties boycotted the contest he triggered via resignation. Pre-election constituency polling from Survation showed him on track for roughly 73%, reflecting strong retention among Reform UK supporters in the constituency. With results now confirmed and turnout at 44%, only procedural steps such as an official declaration or any unforeseen recount could still alter the final tally for market resolution.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Volume
$31,748Data de Término
13 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
Nigel Farage's decisive victory in the August 2026 Clacton by-election has locked in trader consensus at near-certainty for an increased vote share. He secured 63.3% of the vote—up 17 points from his 46.2% in the 2024 general election—against a field dominated by novelty candidates after major parties boycotted the contest he triggered via resignation. Pre-election constituency polling from Survation showed him on track for roughly 73%, reflecting strong retention among Reform UK supporters in the constituency. With results now confirmed and turnout at 44%, only procedural steps such as an official declaration or any unforeseen recount could still alter the final tally for market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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