Recent polling shows several 2026 Senate contests rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters like the Cook Political Report, including Republican-held seats in Texas, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, and Iowa plus open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire. Democratic candidates have narrowed or reversed deficits in Texas and Ohio according to late August and early September surveys, while national generic ballot trends favor Democrats by roughly seven points. Open seats in North Carolina and Georgia also feature tight matchups between established candidates. With the general election seven weeks away, these races hinge on turnout patterns, candidate-specific dynamics, and any late shifts in the national environment that could compress or expand final margins below five points.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$64,033 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
83%
Alasca
72%
Kansas
67%
Michigan
65%
Iowa
62%
Ohio (Especial)
56%
Nebraska
51%
Maine
40%
New Hampshire
36%
South Carolina
42%
Carolina do Norte
27%
Flórida (Especial)
25%
Geórgia
20%
Minnesota
14%
Novo México
13%
Montana
9%
Virgínia
5%
Colorado
4%
$64,033 Vol.
Texas
$7,132 Vol.
83%
Alasca
$2,789 Vol.
72%
Kansas
$556 Vol.
67%
Michigan
$2,743 Vol.
65%
Iowa
$5,657 Vol.
62%
Ohio (Especial)
$3,967 Vol.
56%
Nebraska
$3,719 Vol.
51%
Maine
$1,119 Vol.
40%
New Hampshire
$2,402 Vol.
36%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
42%
Carolina do Norte
$5,817 Vol.
27%
Flórida (Especial)
$2,450 Vol.
25%
Geórgia
$2,057 Vol.
20%
Minnesota
$9,915 Vol.
14%
Novo México
$6,665 Vol.
13%
Montana
$2,990 Vol.
9%
Virgínia
$1,344 Vol.
5%
Colorado
$2,599 Vol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows several 2026 Senate contests rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters like the Cook Political Report, including Republican-held seats in Texas, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, and Iowa plus open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire. Democratic candidates have narrowed or reversed deficits in Texas and Ohio according to late August and early September surveys, while national generic ballot trends favor Democrats by roughly seven points. Open seats in North Carolina and Georgia also feature tight matchups between established candidates. With the general election seven weeks away, these races hinge on turnout patterns, candidate-specific dynamics, and any late shifts in the national environment that could compress or expand final margins below five points.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$64,033Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows several 2026 Senate contests rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters like the Cook Political Report, including Republican-held seats in Texas, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, and Iowa plus open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire. Democratic candidates have narrowed or reversed deficits in Texas and Ohio according to late August and early September surveys, while national generic ballot trends favor Democrats by roughly seven points. Open seats in North Carolina and Georgia also feature tight matchups between established candidates. With the general election seven weeks away, these races hinge on turnout patterns, candidate-specific dynamics, and any late shifts in the national environment that could compress or expand final margins below five points.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$64,033Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling shows several 2026 Senate contests rated as toss-ups or leans by forecasters like the Cook Political Report, including Republican-held seats in Texas, Ohio, Maine, Alaska, and Iowa plus open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire. Democratic candidates have narrowed or reversed deficits in Texas and Ohio according to late August and early September surveys, while national generic ballot trends favor Democrats by roughly seven points. Open seats in North Carolina and Georgia also feature tight matchups between established candidates. With the general election seven weeks away, these races hinge on turnout patterns, candidate-specific dynamics, and any late shifts in the national environment that could compress or expand final margins below five points.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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