Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 76.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October, reflecting recent model releases that have strengthened its lead in capability benchmarks and style control features for large language models. OpenAI at 10.2% and Meta, Google, and others below 10% indicate traders view current competitive gaps as significant, with Anthropic's positioning tied to demonstrated performance edges over rivals. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model iterations or developer updates through October, though product timelines remain subject to typical delays in the fast-moving AI sector. Market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments backed by real capital.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQual empresa tem o modelo de IA número1 no final de outubro? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Qual empresa tem o modelo de IA número1 no final de outubro? (Controle de Estilo Ativado)
Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 10.3%
Meta 7.0%
Google 6.6%
$21,086 Vol.
$21,086 Vol.
31 out 2026
Anthropic
77%
OpenAI
10%
Meta
7%
7%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 77%
OpenAI 10.3%
Meta 7.0%
Google 6.6%
$21,086 Vol.
$21,086 Vol.
31 out 2026
Anthropic
$12,885 Vol.
77%
OpenAI
$695 Vol.
10%
Meta
$468 Vol.
7%
$539 Vol.
7%
Moonshot
$438 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$446 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$406 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$246 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$382 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$409 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$375 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$366 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$371 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$366 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$364 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$367 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$328 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$371 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$502 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$388 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 76.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October, reflecting recent model releases that have strengthened its lead in capability benchmarks and style control features for large language models. OpenAI at 10.2% and Meta, Google, and others below 10% indicate traders view current competitive gaps as significant, with Anthropic's positioning tied to demonstrated performance edges over rivals. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model iterations or developer updates through October, though product timelines remain subject to typical delays in the fast-moving AI sector. Market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments backed by real capital.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado Aberto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$21,086Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 76.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October, reflecting recent model releases that have strengthened its lead in capability benchmarks and style control features for large language models. OpenAI at 10.2% and Meta, Google, and others below 10% indicate traders view current competitive gaps as significant, with Anthropic's positioning tied to demonstrated performance edges over rivals. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model iterations or developer updates through October, though product timelines remain subject to typical delays in the fast-moving AI sector. Market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments backed by real capital.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$21,086Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns Anthropic a 76.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October, reflecting recent model releases that have strengthened its lead in capability benchmarks and style control features for large language models. OpenAI at 10.2% and Meta, Google, and others below 10% indicate traders view current competitive gaps as significant, with Anthropic's positioning tied to demonstrated performance edges over rivals. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model iterations or developer updates through October, though product timelines remain subject to typical delays in the fast-moving AI sector. Market-implied odds capture aggregated trader assessments backed by real capital.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions