The rapid reversal of June 2026 Commerce Department export controls on Anthropic’s Mythos 5 and Fable 5 large language models underpins the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Those restrictions briefly forced Anthropic to suspend public access to both frontier models for compliance, yet the Trump administration lifted them within weeks, restoring global availability of Fable 5 and limited access to Mythos 5 for vetted U.S. entities. No new national-security orders, licensing mandates, or credible reports of impending actions have surfaced in July or early August. Traders therefore view the earlier episode as an isolated, quickly de-escalated event rather than the start of sustained regulatory pressure on additional Claude models.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO governo dos EUA removerá o acesso público a outro modelo de IA antrópica em 2026?
O governo dos EUA removerá o acesso público a outro modelo de IA antrópica em 2026?
Sim
21% chance
$26,129 Vol.
$26,129 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
21% chance
$26,129 Vol.
$26,129 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The rapid reversal of June 2026 Commerce Department export controls on Anthropic’s Mythos 5 and Fable 5 large language models underpins the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Those restrictions briefly forced Anthropic to suspend public access to both frontier models for compliance, yet the Trump administration lifted them within weeks, restoring global availability of Fable 5 and limited access to Mythos 5 for vetted U.S. entities. No new national-security orders, licensing mandates, or credible reports of impending actions have surfaced in July or early August. Traders therefore view the earlier episode as an isolated, quickly de-escalated event rather than the start of sustained regulatory pressure on additional Claude models.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 3, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$26,129Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 3, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The rapid reversal of June 2026 Commerce Department export controls on Anthropic’s Mythos 5 and Fable 5 large language models underpins the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Those restrictions briefly forced Anthropic to suspend public access to both frontier models for compliance, yet the Trump administration lifted them within weeks, restoring global availability of Fable 5 and limited access to Mythos 5 for vetted U.S. entities. No new national-security orders, licensing mandates, or credible reports of impending actions have surfaced in July or early August. Traders therefore view the earlier episode as an isolated, quickly de-escalated event rather than the start of sustained regulatory pressure on additional Claude models.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,129Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 3, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The rapid reversal of June 2026 Commerce Department export controls on Anthropic’s Mythos 5 and Fable 5 large language models underpins the 79.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Those restrictions briefly forced Anthropic to suspend public access to both frontier models for compliance, yet the Trump administration lifted them within weeks, restoring global availability of Fable 5 and limited access to Mythos 5 for vetted U.S. entities. No new national-security orders, licensing mandates, or credible reports of impending actions have surfaced in July or early August. Traders therefore view the earlier episode as an isolated, quickly de-escalated event rather than the start of sustained regulatory pressure on additional Claude models.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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