OpenAI and Meta hold the highest implied probabilities around 18% each for third-best AI lab by end of October, reflecting their recent flagship releases—GPT-6 Astra for OpenAI and Muse Spark 1.3 for Meta—that have strengthened competitive positioning on benchmarks like coding, agentic tasks, and multimodal reasoning. Traders see these as key differentiators amid converging capabilities across labs, where Anthropic leads overall but leaves room for Meta’s speed and open-model momentum or OpenAI’s enterprise adoption and cybersecurity focus to claim third. Chinese players like Tencent, Alibaba, and Moonshot gain from cost-efficient scaling, while Google and xAI trail due to delayed flagships. Key catalysts ahead include any late-September or October model updates that could shift benchmark standings before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTerceiro melhor laboratório de IA no final de outubro?
Terceiro melhor laboratório de IA no final de outubro?
Google 20%
Meta 19%
OpenAI 17.9%
Tencent 13.6%
$22,360 Vol.
$22,360 Vol.
31 out 2026
20%
Meta
19%
OpenAI
18%
Tencent
14%
Alibaba
14%
Moonshot
5%
Anthropic
4%
Z.ai
2%
Mistral
2%
ByteDance
2%
MiniMax
2%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
14%
Baidu
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
1%
Amazon
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Google 20%
Meta 19%
OpenAI 17.9%
Tencent 13.6%
$22,360 Vol.
$22,360 Vol.
31 out 2026
$7,652 Vol.
20%
Meta
$1,080 Vol.
19%
OpenAI
$2,776 Vol.
18%
Tencent
$506 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$4,056 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$509 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$311 Vol.
4%
Z.ai
$359 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$506 Vol.
2%
ByteDance
$468 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$543 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$487 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$455 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$333 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$330 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$353 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$354 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$347 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$316 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$309 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$373 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI and Meta hold the highest implied probabilities around 18% each for third-best AI lab by end of October, reflecting their recent flagship releases—GPT-6 Astra for OpenAI and Muse Spark 1.3 for Meta—that have strengthened competitive positioning on benchmarks like coding, agentic tasks, and multimodal reasoning. Traders see these as key differentiators amid converging capabilities across labs, where Anthropic leads overall but leaves room for Meta’s speed and open-model momentum or OpenAI’s enterprise adoption and cybersecurity focus to claim third. Chinese players like Tencent, Alibaba, and Moonshot gain from cost-efficient scaling, while Google and xAI trail due to delayed flagships. Key catalysts ahead include any late-September or October model updates that could shift benchmark standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado Aberto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$22,360Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI and Meta hold the highest implied probabilities around 18% each for third-best AI lab by end of October, reflecting their recent flagship releases—GPT-6 Astra for OpenAI and Muse Spark 1.3 for Meta—that have strengthened competitive positioning on benchmarks like coding, agentic tasks, and multimodal reasoning. Traders see these as key differentiators amid converging capabilities across labs, where Anthropic leads overall but leaves room for Meta’s speed and open-model momentum or OpenAI’s enterprise adoption and cybersecurity focus to claim third. Chinese players like Tencent, Alibaba, and Moonshot gain from cost-efficient scaling, while Google and xAI trail due to delayed flagships. Key catalysts ahead include any late-September or October model updates that could shift benchmark standings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$22,360Data de Término
1 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI and Meta hold the highest implied probabilities around 18% each for third-best AI lab by end of October, reflecting their recent flagship releases—GPT-6 Astra for OpenAI and Muse Spark 1.3 for Meta—that have strengthened competitive positioning on benchmarks like coding, agentic tasks, and multimodal reasoning. Traders see these as key differentiators amid converging capabilities across labs, where Anthropic leads overall but leaves room for Meta’s speed and open-model momentum or OpenAI’s enterprise adoption and cybersecurity focus to claim third. Chinese players like Tencent, Alibaba, and Moonshot gain from cost-efficient scaling, while Google and xAI trail due to delayed flagships. Key catalysts ahead include any late-September or October model updates that could shift benchmark standings before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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