Tarsier Pharma's planned NYSE American listing (ticker TARX) for a $45–50 million raise at an $8–10 per share range—implying roughly $294 million post-money market cap—targeted a July 2026 close but has not priced or launched as of mid-August. The dominant 98.6% market-implied probability on no IPO before September 2026 reflects the missed window, absence of updated SEC filings confirming an imminent roadshow or pricing, and the company's status as a clinical-stage ophthalmic biotech with ongoing losses, no product revenue, and a Phase 3 uveitis trial slated for Q3 2026 initiation. Broader biotech IPO activity has favored larger or more advanced deals, while Tarsier’s small size and single-asset focus likely contributed to the delay amid selective market conditions. A rapid restart could still occur if underwriter Konik Capital Partners secures commitments or if positive regulatory or trial updates emerge before month-end, though the short timeframe to September limits realistic upside scenarios for a closing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSem IPO antes de setembro de 2026 98.6%
US$400M-US$450M 3.1%
US$250M–US$300M 3.0%
US$ 350 milhões - US$ 400 milhões 1.9%
$15,117 Vol.
$15,117 Vol.
9 jul 2026
<US$250M
1%
US$250M–US$300M
3%
US$ 300M–US$ 350M
<1%
US$ 350 milhões - US$ 400 milhões
2%
US$400M-US$450M
3%
>US$ 450M
<1%
Sem IPO antes de setembro de 2026
99%
Sem IPO antes de setembro de 2026 98.6%
US$400M-US$450M 3.1%
US$250M–US$300M 3.0%
US$ 350 milhões - US$ 400 milhões 1.9%
$15,117 Vol.
$15,117 Vol.
9 jul 2026
<US$250M
$907 Vol.
1%
US$250M–US$300M
$979 Vol.
3%
US$ 300M–US$ 350M
$561 Vol.
<1%
US$ 350 milhões - US$ 400 milhões
$561 Vol.
2%
US$400M-US$450M
$349 Vol.
3%
>US$ 450M
$680 Vol.
<1%
Sem IPO antes de setembro de 2026
$11,080 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Tarsier Pharma's planned NYSE American listing (ticker TARX) for a $45–50 million raise at an $8–10 per share range—implying roughly $294 million post-money market cap—targeted a July 2026 close but has not priced or launched as of mid-August. The dominant 98.6% market-implied probability on no IPO before September 2026 reflects the missed window, absence of updated SEC filings confirming an imminent roadshow or pricing, and the company's status as a clinical-stage ophthalmic biotech with ongoing losses, no product revenue, and a Phase 3 uveitis trial slated for Q3 2026 initiation. Broader biotech IPO activity has favored larger or more advanced deals, while Tarsier’s small size and single-asset focus likely contributed to the delay amid selective market conditions. A rapid restart could still occur if underwriter Konik Capital Partners secures commitments or if positive regulatory or trial updates emerge before month-end, though the short timeframe to September limits realistic upside scenarios for a closing.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ET
Volume
$15,117Data de Término
9 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Tarsier Pharma's planned NYSE American listing (ticker TARX) for a $45–50 million raise at an $8–10 per share range—implying roughly $294 million post-money market cap—targeted a July 2026 close but has not priced or launched as of mid-August. The dominant 98.6% market-implied probability on no IPO before September 2026 reflects the missed window, absence of updated SEC filings confirming an imminent roadshow or pricing, and the company's status as a clinical-stage ophthalmic biotech with ongoing losses, no product revenue, and a Phase 3 uveitis trial slated for Q3 2026 initiation. Broader biotech IPO activity has favored larger or more advanced deals, while Tarsier’s small size and single-asset focus likely contributed to the delay amid selective market conditions. A rapid restart could still occur if underwriter Konik Capital Partners secures commitments or if positive regulatory or trial updates emerge before month-end, though the short timeframe to September limits realistic upside scenarios for a closing.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Volume
$15,117Data de Término
9 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarsier Pharma's planned NYSE American listing (ticker TARX) for a $45–50 million raise at an $8–10 per share range—implying roughly $294 million post-money market cap—targeted a July 2026 close but has not priced or launched as of mid-August. The dominant 98.6% market-implied probability on no IPO before September 2026 reflects the missed window, absence of updated SEC filings confirming an imminent roadshow or pricing, and the company's status as a clinical-stage ophthalmic biotech with ongoing losses, no product revenue, and a Phase 3 uveitis trial slated for Q3 2026 initiation. Broader biotech IPO activity has favored larger or more advanced deals, while Tarsier’s small size and single-asset focus likely contributed to the delay amid selective market conditions. A rapid restart could still occur if underwriter Konik Capital Partners secures commitments or if positive regulatory or trial updates emerge before month-end, though the short timeframe to September limits realistic upside scenarios for a closing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions