July 2026 delivered record-low rainfall across southern England, with provisional Met Office data showing England at just 5.6 mm total—about 8% of the long-term average—and southern regions recording only 1.5 mm. London stations reported near-zero measurable precipitation for the month, well below the typical 40–50 mm July climatology, driven by a prolonged heatwave and persistent high-pressure blocking that suppressed Atlantic fronts. These official observations from the UK Met Office and Environment Agency underpin the market's near-100% implied probability for totals under 30 mm. Final verification could shift only in the unlikely event of major post-processing revisions to rain-gauge data or definitional changes in the measurement period.