The market for Oscars 2027 Best Original Screenplay shows a fragmented field with The Debut holding the highest implied probability at 33.8% and Wild Horse Nine close behind at 32.5%, followed by Elsinore at 17.0% and a long tail of single-digit contenders. This tight distribution reflects the early stage of the 2026 awards cycle, where trader consensus hinges on script availability, festival buzz, and initial industry screenings rather than established precursors. Guild nominations from the Writers Guild of America and early critics' circle indications will likely sharpen differentiation in coming months, while historical patterns favor originals with strong character-driven narratives over more experimental entries. Upcoming fall festivals and year-end screenings remain key swing factors before nominations lock in.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
Wild Horse Nine 33%
The Debut 29.2%
Obsession 11%
Digger 4%
$34,384 Vol.
$34,384 Vol.
14 mar 2027
Wild Horse Nine
33%
The Debut
34%
Obsession
11%
Digger
4%
The Invite
3%
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
3%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
3%
The Drama
3%
Fjord
2%
Elsinore
17%
Josephine
2%
Club Kid
1%
A Place in Hell
1%
The Odyssey
1%
Fatherland
1%
The Black Ball
1%
Forgotten Island
1%
Wild Horse Nine 33%
The Debut 29.2%
Obsession 11%
Digger 4%
$34,384 Vol.
$34,384 Vol.
14 mar 2027
Wild Horse Nine
$26,197 Vol.
33%
The Debut
$1,186 Vol.
34%
Obsession
$484 Vol.
11%
Digger
$3,027 Vol.
4%
The Invite
$59 Vol.
3%
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
$69 Vol.
3%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
$106 Vol.
3%
The Drama
$39 Vol.
3%
Fjord
$1,690 Vol.
2%
Elsinore
$558 Vol.
17%
Josephine
$59 Vol.
2%
Club Kid
$543 Vol.
1%
A Place in Hell
$69 Vol.
1%
The Odyssey
$69 Vol.
1%
Fatherland
$40 Vol.
1%
The Black Ball
$107 Vol.
1%
Forgotten Island
$79 Vol.
1%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market for Oscars 2027 Best Original Screenplay shows a fragmented field with The Debut holding the highest implied probability at 33.8% and Wild Horse Nine close behind at 32.5%, followed by Elsinore at 17.0% and a long tail of single-digit contenders. This tight distribution reflects the early stage of the 2026 awards cycle, where trader consensus hinges on script availability, festival buzz, and initial industry screenings rather than established precursors. Guild nominations from the Writers Guild of America and early critics' circle indications will likely sharpen differentiation in coming months, while historical patterns favor originals with strong character-driven narratives over more experimental entries. Upcoming fall festivals and year-end screenings remain key swing factors before nominations lock in.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ET
Volume
$34,384Data de Término
14 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The market for Oscars 2027 Best Original Screenplay shows a fragmented field with The Debut holding the highest implied probability at 33.8% and Wild Horse Nine close behind at 32.5%, followed by Elsinore at 17.0% and a long tail of single-digit contenders. This tight distribution reflects the early stage of the 2026 awards cycle, where trader consensus hinges on script availability, festival buzz, and initial industry screenings rather than established precursors. Guild nominations from the Writers Guild of America and early critics' circle indications will likely sharpen differentiation in coming months, while historical patterns favor originals with strong character-driven narratives over more experimental entries. Upcoming fall festivals and year-end screenings remain key swing factors before nominations lock in.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$34,384Data de Término
14 mar 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market for Oscars 2027 Best Original Screenplay shows a fragmented field with The Debut holding the highest implied probability at 33.8% and Wild Horse Nine close behind at 32.5%, followed by Elsinore at 17.0% and a long tail of single-digit contenders. This tight distribution reflects the early stage of the 2026 awards cycle, where trader consensus hinges on script availability, festival buzz, and initial industry screenings rather than established precursors. Guild nominations from the Writers Guild of America and early critics' circle indications will likely sharpen differentiation in coming months, while historical patterns favor originals with strong character-driven narratives over more experimental entries. Upcoming fall festivals and year-end screenings remain key swing factors before nominations lock in.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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