**Multiple incidents logged on OpenAI’s status page have already produced at least three qualifying ChatGPT outage days in June 2026, with additional disruptions reported around June 2, 9–12, and 16–17.** These events, driven by elevated error rates, degraded performance on mobile and web clients, and capacity issues, have shifted trader consensus sharply toward the 4+ outcome at 83.5% implied probability. OpenAI continues to experience recurring strain on its large language model infrastructure as usage scales, producing partial outages that meet the market’s resolution criteria even when brief. With roughly twelve days remaining in the month and no signs of improved stability, the market prices in a high likelihood of further incidents pushing the total to four or more days. Lower-probability outcomes (3 at 12%, 2 at 0.1%) would require an unusually quiet remainder of June that contradicts the pattern observed so far.