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icon for Quantos lançamentos da SpaceX em 2026?

Quantos lançamentos da SpaceX em 2026?

icon for Quantos lançamentos da SpaceX em 2026?

Quantos lançamentos da SpaceX em 2026?

160-179 52%

140-159 30.5%

200 ou mais 16%

180-199 13.0%

Polymarket

$288,280 Vol.

160-179 52%

140-159 30.5%

200 ou mais 16%

180-199 13.0%

Polymarket

$288,280 Vol.

<100

$3,287 Vol.

1%

100-119

$1,727 Vol.

<1%

120-139

$2,429 Vol.

4%

140-159

$40,931 Vol.

36%

160-179

$85,632 Vol.

45%

180-199

$57,760 Vol.

13%

200 ou mais

$96,513 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 140-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026, with 160-179 edging out at 45% implied probability over 140-159 at 41.1%, reflecting SpaceX's blistering early-year Falcon 9 cadence—roughly 45-50 launches by late April, fueled by Starlink constellation expansions and rapid booster reusability, including the 600th landing this month. This pace extrapolates to 150-170 annually, but close odds highlight uncertainties in sustaining it amid pad throughput limits at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, FAA licensing delays, and Starship's nascent orbital flight rate (targeting 25 flights but currently low). Key differentiators include Starship ramp-up potential adding 10-20 launches versus Falcon bottlenecks; watch Q2 manifests and next Starship tests for shifts. Historical 2025 record of 165 underscores feasibility yet evolving technical risks.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$288,280
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 140-179 SpaceX orbital launches in 2026, with 160-179 edging out at 45% implied probability over 140-159 at 41.1%, reflecting SpaceX's blistering early-year Falcon 9 cadence—roughly 45-50 launches by late April, fueled by Starlink constellation expansions and rapid booster reusability, including the 600th landing this month. This pace extrapolates to 150-170 annually, but close odds highlight uncertainties in sustaining it amid pad throughput limits at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, FAA licensing delays, and Starship's nascent orbital flight rate (targeting 25 flights but currently low). Key differentiators include Starship ramp-up potential adding 10-20 launches versus Falcon bottlenecks; watch Q2 manifests and next Starship tests for shifts. Historical 2025 record of 165 underscores feasibility yet evolving technical risks.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Volume
$288,280
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantos lançamentos da SpaceX em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "160-179" at 45%, followed by "140-159" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantos lançamentos da SpaceX em 2026?" has generated $288.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantos lançamentos da SpaceX em 2026?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantos lançamentos da SpaceX em 2026?" is "160-179" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "140-159" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantos lançamentos da SpaceX em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.