Recent volatility in Strait of Hormuz transits stems primarily from the fragile mid-June US-Iran memorandum of understanding, under which Washington must lift its naval blockade by July 19 while Tehran commits to restoring commercial flows. Daily passages have fluctuated sharply—ranging from lows near 13 to peaks of 55-74 amid demining progress and selective reopenings—but recurrent attacks and Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings on unauthorized lanes have kept risk premiums elevated. This uncertainty compresses weekly aggregates around the 150-225 vessel range, with trader positioning reflecting the narrow window before potential escalation or stabilization ahead of the deadline. Oil tanker and LNG operators weigh insurance costs, AIS-dark transits, and Gulf inventory backlogs against any sustained reopening that could ease global energy supply constraints.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Ormuz de 6 de julho?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Ormuz de 6 de julho?
<150 99.1%
150-174 <1%
175-199 <1%
200-224 <1%
$279,389 Vol.
$279,389 Vol.
12 jul 2026
<150
Sim
150-174
Não
175-199
Não
200-224
Não
225+
Não
<150 99.1%
150-174 <1%
175-199 <1%
200-224 <1%
$279,389 Vol.
$279,389 Vol.
12 jul 2026
<150
$139,056 Vol.
Sim
150-174
$43,830 Vol.
Não
175-199
$28,580 Vol.
Não
200-224
$25,422 Vol.
Não
225+
$42,501 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent volatility in Strait of Hormuz transits stems primarily from the fragile mid-June US-Iran memorandum of understanding, under which Washington must lift its naval blockade by July 19 while Tehran commits to restoring commercial flows. Daily passages have fluctuated sharply—ranging from lows near 13 to peaks of 55-74 amid demining progress and selective reopenings—but recurrent attacks and Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings on unauthorized lanes have kept risk premiums elevated. This uncertainty compresses weekly aggregates around the 150-225 vessel range, with trader positioning reflecting the narrow window before potential escalation or stabilization ahead of the deadline. Oil tanker and LNG operators weigh insurance costs, AIS-dark transits, and Gulf inventory backlogs against any sustained reopening that could ease global energy supply constraints.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 3, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Volume
$279,389Data de Término
12 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 3, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent volatility in Strait of Hormuz transits stems primarily from the fragile mid-June US-Iran memorandum of understanding, under which Washington must lift its naval blockade by July 19 while Tehran commits to restoring commercial flows. Daily passages have fluctuated sharply—ranging from lows near 13 to peaks of 55-74 amid demining progress and selective reopenings—but recurrent attacks and Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings on unauthorized lanes have kept risk premiums elevated. This uncertainty compresses weekly aggregates around the 150-225 vessel range, with trader positioning reflecting the narrow window before potential escalation or stabilization ahead of the deadline. Oil tanker and LNG operators weigh insurance costs, AIS-dark transits, and Gulf inventory backlogs against any sustained reopening that could ease global energy supply constraints.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$279,389Data de Término
12 jul 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 3, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
Recent volatility in Strait of Hormuz transits stems primarily from the fragile mid-June US-Iran memorandum of understanding, under which Washington must lift its naval blockade by July 19 while Tehran commits to restoring commercial flows. Daily passages have fluctuated sharply—ranging from lows near 13 to peaks of 55-74 amid demining progress and selective reopenings—but recurrent attacks and Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings on unauthorized lanes have kept risk premiums elevated. This uncertainty compresses weekly aggregates around the 150-225 vessel range, with trader positioning reflecting the narrow window before potential escalation or stabilization ahead of the deadline. Oil tanker and LNG operators weigh insurance costs, AIS-dark transits, and Gulf inventory backlogs against any sustained reopening that could ease global energy supply constraints.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions