Arizona's nine House districts feature three seats rated safe or solid Democratic in nonpartisan forecasts, with the remaining six held by Republicans after 2024. The market's emphasis on five Democratic seats reflects the two primary battlegrounds—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—rated toss-ups by outlets including the Cook Political Report. July 21 primaries set up Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in AZ-1 and Democrat JoAnna Mendoza against incumbent Juan Ciscomani in AZ-6, where limited polling shows narrow margins. National midterm dynamics and fundraising in these Phoenix-area and southern Arizona districts could determine whether Democrats flip zero, one, or both seats. Lower probabilities for three or six-plus outcomes align with the districts' historical performance and the absence of broader structural shifts since the primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado5 60%
4 16.5%
6 16%
3 6.5%
$16,098 Vol.
$16,098 Vol.
2 nov 2026
<3
<1%
3
7%
4
16%
5
60%
6
16%
7+
3%
5 60%
4 16.5%
6 16%
3 6.5%
$16,098 Vol.
$16,098 Vol.
2 nov 2026
<3
$982 Vol.
<1%
3
$6,115 Vol.
7%
4
$2,458 Vol.
16%
5
$4,189 Vol.
60%
6
$1,531 Vol.
16%
7+
$823 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Arizona's nine House districts feature three seats rated safe or solid Democratic in nonpartisan forecasts, with the remaining six held by Republicans after 2024. The market's emphasis on five Democratic seats reflects the two primary battlegrounds—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—rated toss-ups by outlets including the Cook Political Report. July 21 primaries set up Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in AZ-1 and Democrat JoAnna Mendoza against incumbent Juan Ciscomani in AZ-6, where limited polling shows narrow margins. National midterm dynamics and fundraising in these Phoenix-area and southern Arizona districts could determine whether Democrats flip zero, one, or both seats. Lower probabilities for three or six-plus outcomes align with the districts' historical performance and the absence of broader structural shifts since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ET
Volume
$16,098Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Arizona's nine House districts feature three seats rated safe or solid Democratic in nonpartisan forecasts, with the remaining six held by Republicans after 2024. The market's emphasis on five Democratic seats reflects the two primary battlegrounds—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—rated toss-ups by outlets including the Cook Political Report. July 21 primaries set up Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in AZ-1 and Democrat JoAnna Mendoza against incumbent Juan Ciscomani in AZ-6, where limited polling shows narrow margins. National midterm dynamics and fundraising in these Phoenix-area and southern Arizona districts could determine whether Democrats flip zero, one, or both seats. Lower probabilities for three or six-plus outcomes align with the districts' historical performance and the absence of broader structural shifts since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Arizona in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Arizona US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$16,098Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Arizona's nine House districts feature three seats rated safe or solid Democratic in nonpartisan forecasts, with the remaining six held by Republicans after 2024. The market's emphasis on five Democratic seats reflects the two primary battlegrounds—open AZ-1 and AZ-6—rated toss-ups by outlets including the Cook Political Report. July 21 primaries set up Democrat Amish Shah against Republican Jay Feely in AZ-1 and Democrat JoAnna Mendoza against incumbent Juan Ciscomani in AZ-6, where limited polling shows narrow margins. National midterm dynamics and fundraising in these Phoenix-area and southern Arizona districts could determine whether Democrats flip zero, one, or both seats. Lower probabilities for three or six-plus outcomes align with the districts' historical performance and the absence of broader structural shifts since the primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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