**Traders assign an 87.5% probability to “No” on a federal capital gains tax cut by the end of 2026 because major rate reductions have not advanced despite Republican control and targeted proposals.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025 made TCJA individual provisions permanent and added temporary relief measures but left the long-term capital gains rates (0/15/20% plus 3.8% NIIT) unchanged. In 2026, Republican senators have urged Treasury to index gains for inflation and expand home-sale exclusions, while legislation such as the Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act and home-sale relief bills have been introduced or discussed in committee. However, prospects for passage before the November midterms remain low amid divided GOP priorities, procedural constraints in the Senate, and competing fiscal demands. With limited time left in the session and no enacted broad cuts, market pricing reflects the low likelihood of a significant rate reduction materializing by December 31.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
13% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
Sim
13% chance
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 87.5% probability to “No” on a federal capital gains tax cut by the end of 2026 because major rate reductions have not advanced despite Republican control and targeted proposals.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025 made TCJA individual provisions permanent and added temporary relief measures but left the long-term capital gains rates (0/15/20% plus 3.8% NIIT) unchanged. In 2026, Republican senators have urged Treasury to index gains for inflation and expand home-sale exclusions, while legislation such as the Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act and home-sale relief bills have been introduced or discussed in committee. However, prospects for passage before the November midterms remain low amid divided GOP priorities, procedural constraints in the Senate, and competing fiscal demands. With limited time left in the session and no enacted broad cuts, market pricing reflects the low likelihood of a significant rate reduction materializing by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$296Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 87.5% probability to “No” on a federal capital gains tax cut by the end of 2026 because major rate reductions have not advanced despite Republican control and targeted proposals.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025 made TCJA individual provisions permanent and added temporary relief measures but left the long-term capital gains rates (0/15/20% plus 3.8% NIIT) unchanged. In 2026, Republican senators have urged Treasury to index gains for inflation and expand home-sale exclusions, while legislation such as the Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act and home-sale relief bills have been introduced or discussed in committee. However, prospects for passage before the November midterms remain low amid divided GOP priorities, procedural constraints in the Senate, and competing fiscal demands. With limited time left in the session and no enacted broad cuts, market pricing reflects the low likelihood of a significant rate reduction materializing by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$296Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 87.5% probability to “No” on a federal capital gains tax cut by the end of 2026 because major rate reductions have not advanced despite Republican control and targeted proposals.** The One Big Beautiful Bill Act signed in July 2025 made TCJA individual provisions permanent and added temporary relief measures but left the long-term capital gains rates (0/15/20% plus 3.8% NIIT) unchanged. In 2026, Republican senators have urged Treasury to index gains for inflation and expand home-sale exclusions, while legislation such as the Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act and home-sale relief bills have been introduced or discussed in committee. However, prospects for passage before the November midterms remain low amid divided GOP priorities, procedural constraints in the Senate, and competing fiscal demands. With limited time left in the session and no enacted broad cuts, market pricing reflects the low likelihood of a significant rate reduction materializing by December 31.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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