Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside resilient August employment gains of 162,000 and a 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and core measures remaining above the 2% target amid energy price pressures, market-implied odds favor a 25 basis point hike in December as the consensus path. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and the September FOMC meeting, where futures priced a high likelihood of an initial increase, further support this positioning over a hold. Upcoming inflation releases and labor data through year-end remain key swing factors for the final 2026 decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado25 bps increase 56%
Sem alteração 40%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
25 bps decrease 3.3%
$685,197 Vol.
$685,197 Vol.
9 dez 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
Sem alteração
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
Sem alteração 40%
50+ bps increase 3.8%
25 bps decrease 3.3%
$685,197 Vol.
$685,197 Vol.
9 dez 2026
50+ bps decrease
$101,868 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$154,984 Vol.
3%
Sem alteração
$136,664 Vol.
40%
25 bps increase
$187,108 Vol.
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,573 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside resilient August employment gains of 162,000 and a 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and core measures remaining above the 2% target amid energy price pressures, market-implied odds favor a 25 basis point hike in December as the consensus path. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and the September FOMC meeting, where futures priced a high likelihood of an initial increase, further support this positioning over a hold. Upcoming inflation releases and labor data through year-end remain key swing factors for the final 2026 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$685,197Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside resilient August employment gains of 162,000 and a 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and core measures remaining above the 2% target amid energy price pressures, market-implied odds favor a 25 basis point hike in December as the consensus path. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and the September FOMC meeting, where futures priced a high likelihood of an initial increase, further support this positioning over a hold. Upcoming inflation releases and labor data through year-end remain key swing factors for the final 2026 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$685,197Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside resilient August employment gains of 162,000 and a 4.1% unemployment rate, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and core measures remaining above the 2% target amid energy price pressures, market-implied odds favor a 25 basis point hike in December as the consensus path. Hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh and the September FOMC meeting, where futures priced a high likelihood of an initial increase, further support this positioning over a hold. Upcoming inflation releases and labor data through year-end remain key swing factors for the final 2026 decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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