Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions since early 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal infrastructure, alongside strategic outposts like Hengam and Hormuz that bolster control over the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil trade. U.S. precision strikes in March targeted military assets on Kharg while sparing oil facilities, followed by repeated threats of seizure or further action amid fluctuating ceasefires and Iranian efforts to enforce approved shipping lanes. Export volumes from Kharg have swung sharply, dropping below 200,000 barrels per day during blockades before partial recoveries, directly influencing Brent and WTI benchmarks plus tanker rates. Traders monitor FOMC-adjacent energy volatility, upcoming diplomatic deadlines, and any signals of ground operations that could alter sovereignty over these assets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$134,043 Vol.
30 set 2026
September 30
2%
$134,043 Vol.
September 30
$81,267 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions since early 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal infrastructure, alongside strategic outposts like Hengam and Hormuz that bolster control over the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil trade. U.S. precision strikes in March targeted military assets on Kharg while sparing oil facilities, followed by repeated threats of seizure or further action amid fluctuating ceasefires and Iranian efforts to enforce approved shipping lanes. Export volumes from Kharg have swung sharply, dropping below 200,000 barrels per day during blockades before partial recoveries, directly influencing Brent and WTI benchmarks plus tanker rates. Traders monitor FOMC-adjacent energy volatility, upcoming diplomatic deadlines, and any signals of ground operations that could alter sovereignty over these assets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$134,043Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions since early 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal infrastructure, alongside strategic outposts like Hengam and Hormuz that bolster control over the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil trade. U.S. precision strikes in March targeted military assets on Kharg while sparing oil facilities, followed by repeated threats of seizure or further action amid fluctuating ceasefires and Iranian efforts to enforce approved shipping lanes. Export volumes from Kharg have swung sharply, dropping below 200,000 barrels per day during blockades before partial recoveries, directly influencing Brent and WTI benchmarks plus tanker rates. Traders monitor FOMC-adjacent energy volatility, upcoming diplomatic deadlines, and any signals of ground operations that could alter sovereignty over these assets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$134,043Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions since early 2026 have centered on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports via its terminal infrastructure, alongside strategic outposts like Hengam and Hormuz that bolster control over the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil trade. U.S. precision strikes in March targeted military assets on Kharg while sparing oil facilities, followed by repeated threats of seizure or further action amid fluctuating ceasefires and Iranian efforts to enforce approved shipping lanes. Export volumes from Kharg have swung sharply, dropping below 200,000 barrels per day during blockades before partial recoveries, directly influencing Brent and WTI benchmarks plus tanker rates. Traders monitor FOMC-adjacent energy volatility, upcoming diplomatic deadlines, and any signals of ground operations that could alter sovereignty over these assets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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