Polymarket traders assign a 44% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, mirroring ECB staff's March projection of 0.9%—down 0.3 percentage points from December—and IMF's April update at 1.1%, amid Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks that curb consumption and investment while lifting inflation to 2.6% in March. Q4 2025 GDP growth was revised lower to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, highlighting subdued momentum despite resilient labor markets with unemployment at 6.2% in February and German fiscal stimulus adding modest support. The 30% odds on 0-1.0% reflect downside risks from trade tensions and volatility, with Q1 flash GDP due April 29 as the next key catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1,0-2,0% 45%
7,0%+ 18.8%
<0% 17.2%
4,0-5,0% 16.7%
NOVO
NOVO
31 jan 2027
<0%
10%
0-1,0%
29%
1,0-2,0%
41%
2,0-3,0%
16%
3,0-4,0%
22%
4,0-5,0%
18%
5,0-6,0%
12%
6,0-7,0%
3%
7,0%+
19%
1,0-2,0% 45%
7,0%+ 18.8%
<0% 17.2%
4,0-5,0% 16.7%
NOVO
NOVO
31 jan 2027
<0%
$599 Vol.
10%
0-1,0%
$469 Vol.
29%
1,0-2,0%
$1,271 Vol.
41%
2,0-3,0%
$554 Vol.
16%
3,0-4,0%
$469 Vol.
22%
4,0-5,0%
$1,378 Vol.
18%
5,0-6,0%
$512 Vol.
12%
6,0-7,0%
$542 Vol.
3%
7,0%+
$344 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a 44% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, mirroring ECB staff's March projection of 0.9%—down 0.3 percentage points from December—and IMF's April update at 1.1%, amid Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks that curb consumption and investment while lifting inflation to 2.6% in March. Q4 2025 GDP growth was revised lower to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, highlighting subdued momentum despite resilient labor markets with unemployment at 6.2% in February and German fiscal stimulus adding modest support. The 30% odds on 0-1.0% reflect downside risks from trade tensions and volatility, with Q1 flash GDP due April 29 as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$6,138Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign a 44% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, mirroring ECB staff's March projection of 0.9%—down 0.3 percentage points from December—and IMF's April update at 1.1%, amid Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks that curb consumption and investment while lifting inflation to 2.6% in March. Q4 2025 GDP growth was revised lower to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, highlighting subdued momentum despite resilient labor markets with unemployment at 6.2% in February and German fiscal stimulus adding modest support. The 30% odds on 0-1.0% reflect downside risks from trade tensions and volatility, with Q1 flash GDP due April 29 as the next key catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,138Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 44% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 1.0-2.0% in 2026, mirroring ECB staff's March projection of 0.9%—down 0.3 percentage points from December—and IMF's April update at 1.1%, amid Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks that curb consumption and investment while lifting inflation to 2.6% in March. Q4 2025 GDP growth was revised lower to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, highlighting subdued momentum despite resilient labor markets with unemployment at 6.2% in February and German fiscal stimulus adding modest support. The 30% odds on 0-1.0% reflect downside risks from trade tensions and volatility, with Q1 flash GDP due April 29 as the next key catalyst.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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