Multiple toss-up and lean Senate contests keep Iowa, Ohio's special election, and Texas atop trader consensus for the closest 2026 race. Open seats after retirements in Iowa and Michigan, the Brown-Husted rematch in Ohio, and Paxton's Texas primary win have produced comparable polling spreads and Cook/Sabato toss-up ratings across these states. Alaska, Maine, and North Carolina add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting fundamentals. Recent candidate announcements and primary outcomes have sustained tight margins without clear separation. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout differentials in battleground states, or unexpected national economic signals could widen gaps and reprice probabilities ahead of November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIowa 16.9%
Ohio (Special) 16.8%
Maine 15%
Texas 15%
$27,132 Vol.
$27,132 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Iowa
17%
Ohio (Special)
17%
Maine
15%
Texas
15%
Alaska
12%
Michigan
9%
Nebraska
6%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
New Hampshire
2%
North Carolina
2%
Colorado
2%
Georgia
2%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Iowa 16.9%
Ohio (Special) 16.8%
Maine 15%
Texas 15%
$27,132 Vol.
$27,132 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Iowa
$2,622 Vol.
17%
Ohio (Special)
$4,789 Vol.
17%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
15%
Texas
$705 Vol.
15%
Alaska
$5,108 Vol.
12%
Michigan
$2,246 Vol.
9%
Nebraska
$275 Vol.
6%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$244 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
Colorado
$662 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$752 Vol.
2%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple toss-up and lean Senate contests keep Iowa, Ohio's special election, and Texas atop trader consensus for the closest 2026 race. Open seats after retirements in Iowa and Michigan, the Brown-Husted rematch in Ohio, and Paxton's Texas primary win have produced comparable polling spreads and Cook/Sabato toss-up ratings across these states. Alaska, Maine, and North Carolina add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting fundamentals. Recent candidate announcements and primary outcomes have sustained tight margins without clear separation. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout differentials in battleground states, or unexpected national economic signals could widen gaps and reprice probabilities ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$27,132Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Multiple toss-up and lean Senate contests keep Iowa, Ohio's special election, and Texas atop trader consensus for the closest 2026 race. Open seats after retirements in Iowa and Michigan, the Brown-Husted rematch in Ohio, and Paxton's Texas primary win have produced comparable polling spreads and Cook/Sabato toss-up ratings across these states. Alaska, Maine, and North Carolina add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting fundamentals. Recent candidate announcements and primary outcomes have sustained tight margins without clear separation. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout differentials in battleground states, or unexpected national economic signals could widen gaps and reprice probabilities ahead of November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,132Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple toss-up and lean Senate contests keep Iowa, Ohio's special election, and Texas atop trader consensus for the closest 2026 race. Open seats after retirements in Iowa and Michigan, the Brown-Husted rematch in Ohio, and Paxton's Texas primary win have produced comparable polling spreads and Cook/Sabato toss-up ratings across these states. Alaska, Maine, and North Carolina add further uncertainty through strong challengers and shifting fundamentals. Recent candidate announcements and primary outcomes have sustained tight margins without clear separation. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout differentials in battleground states, or unexpected national economic signals could widen gaps and reprice probabilities ahead of November.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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