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icon for Os pauzinhos capturam um estágio superior da Nave Estelar por...?
Tecnologia·SpaceX

Os pauzinhos capturam um estágio superior da Nave Estelar por...?

icon for Os pauzinhos capturam um estágio superior da Nave Estelar por...?
Tecnologia·SpaceX

Os pauzinhos capturam um estágio superior da Nave Estelar por...?

NOVO
30 set 2026
Polymarket

$1,968 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de setembro de 2026

$74 Vol.

8%

31 de outubro de 2026

$12 Vol.

46%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX’s July 2026 Flight 13 demonstrated the precision required for a Starship upper-stage tower catch when Ship 40’s splashdown landed within the capture window, prompting Elon Musk to confirm it would have been caught had the tower been positioned offshore. This cleared a key engineering milestone ahead of Flight 14, which pairs Booster 21 with Ship 41 for the first orbital-class reentry and potential Mechazilla chopsticks attempt, contingent on FAA approval. Musk later revised expectations to “a few months,” citing ongoing regulatory and operational work. Recent heat-shield performance gains and ongoing tower modifications support faster iteration, yet first-attempt risks around orbital guidance, reentry energy, and licensing keep near-term odds sensitive to launch cadence and agency decisions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Volume
$1,968
Data de Término
1 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX’s July 2026 Flight 13 demonstrated the precision required for a Starship upper-stage tower catch when Ship 40’s splashdown landed within the capture window, prompting Elon Musk to confirm it would have been caught had the tower been positioned offshore. This cleared a key engineering milestone ahead of Flight 14, which pairs Booster 21 with Ship 41 for the first orbital-class reentry and potential Mechazilla chopsticks attempt, contingent on FAA approval. Musk later revised expectations to “a few months,” citing ongoing regulatory and operational work. Recent heat-shield performance gains and ongoing tower modifications support faster iteration, yet first-attempt risks around orbital guidance, reentry energy, and licensing keep near-term odds sensitive to launch cadence and agency decisions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Volume
$1,968
Data de Término
1 nov 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Os pauzinhos capturam um estágio superior da Nave Estelar por...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "31 de outubro de 2026" at 46%, followed by "30 de setembro de 2026" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Os pauzinhos capturam um estágio superior da Nave Estelar por...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 8, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Os pauzinhos capturam um estágio superior da Nave Estelar por...?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Os pauzinhos capturam um estágio superior da Nave Estelar por...?" is "31 de outubro de 2026" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "30 de setembro de 2026" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Os pauzinhos capturam um estágio superior da Nave Estelar por...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.