Trader sentiment for China’s Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth centers on the 4.3–4.9% range, reflecting subdued domestic demand and manufacturing PMI readings near 49 in July that signal ongoing contraction. Weak retail sales and cautious consumer spending continue to weigh on the outlook, while resilient exports and infrastructure investment provide partial support amid limited additional policy stimulus. Consensus forecasts for full-year 2026 growth cluster around 4.4–4.5%, consistent with the market-implied distribution and recent quarterly momentum following Q1’s 5.0% print. Upcoming August inflation and PMI releases, alongside any PBOC communications, remain key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning within these narrow bands.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 38%
4.0-4.3% 11.9%
4.9-5.2% 2.5%
$26,741 Vol.
$26,741 Vol.
20 out 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
12%
4.3-4.6%
49%
4.6-4.9%
38%
4.9-5.2%
3%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 38%
4.0-4.3% 11.9%
4.9-5.2% 2.5%
$26,741 Vol.
$26,741 Vol.
20 out 2026
<3.4%
$952 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,623 Vol.
12%
4.3-4.6%
$10,014 Vol.
49%
4.6-4.9%
$7,996 Vol.
38%
4.9-5.2%
$2,841 Vol.
3%
5.2-5.5%
$899 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,040 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader sentiment for China’s Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth centers on the 4.3–4.9% range, reflecting subdued domestic demand and manufacturing PMI readings near 49 in July that signal ongoing contraction. Weak retail sales and cautious consumer spending continue to weigh on the outlook, while resilient exports and infrastructure investment provide partial support amid limited additional policy stimulus. Consensus forecasts for full-year 2026 growth cluster around 4.4–4.5%, consistent with the market-implied distribution and recent quarterly momentum following Q1’s 5.0% print. Upcoming August inflation and PMI releases, alongside any PBOC communications, remain key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning within these narrow bands.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Mercado Aberto: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volume
$26,741Data de Término
20 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader sentiment for China’s Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth centers on the 4.3–4.9% range, reflecting subdued domestic demand and manufacturing PMI readings near 49 in July that signal ongoing contraction. Weak retail sales and cautious consumer spending continue to weigh on the outlook, while resilient exports and infrastructure investment provide partial support amid limited additional policy stimulus. Consensus forecasts for full-year 2026 growth cluster around 4.4–4.5%, consistent with the market-implied distribution and recent quarterly momentum following Q1’s 5.0% print. Upcoming August inflation and PMI releases, alongside any PBOC communications, remain key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning within these narrow bands.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$26,741Data de Término
20 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for China’s Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth centers on the 4.3–4.9% range, reflecting subdued domestic demand and manufacturing PMI readings near 49 in July that signal ongoing contraction. Weak retail sales and cautious consumer spending continue to weigh on the outlook, while resilient exports and infrastructure investment provide partial support amid limited additional policy stimulus. Consensus forecasts for full-year 2026 growth cluster around 4.4–4.5%, consistent with the market-implied distribution and recent quarterly momentum following Q1’s 5.0% print. Upcoming August inflation and PMI releases, alongside any PBOC communications, remain key near-term catalysts that could shift positioning within these narrow bands.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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