**Banxico’s unanimous decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% since June 2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 5 meeting.** Recent inflation prints, including the 3.26% August headline rate and core measures near 4%, remain within or close to the 2–4% target band, while the central bank’s forecasts show headline and core inflation converging to 3% only in Q4 2027. Forward guidance explicitly states that maintaining the current restrictive stance is appropriate amid persistent core pressures, economic slack, and upside risks from global trade policies, geopolitics, and potential peso volatility. Analyst surveys, including Citi’s September poll, project the rate staying at 6.50% through at least end-2027. A clear break from this consensus would require either a sharper inflation rebound, a material Fed policy shift widening the interest-rate differential, or an unexpected acceleration in growth that reduces economic slack.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNenhuma alteração 93%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 5.3%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 2.1%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$14,045 Vol.
$14,045 Vol.
5 nov 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
5%
Nenhuma alteração
93%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
2%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Nenhuma alteração 93%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 5.3%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 2.1%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$14,045 Vol.
$14,045 Vol.
5 nov 2026
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
$545 Vol.
<1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
$837 Vol.
5%
Nenhuma alteração
$11,782 Vol.
93%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$535 Vol.
2%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$346 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banxico’s unanimous decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% since June 2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 5 meeting.** Recent inflation prints, including the 3.26% August headline rate and core measures near 4%, remain within or close to the 2–4% target band, while the central bank’s forecasts show headline and core inflation converging to 3% only in Q4 2027. Forward guidance explicitly states that maintaining the current restrictive stance is appropriate amid persistent core pressures, economic slack, and upside risks from global trade policies, geopolitics, and potential peso volatility. Analyst surveys, including Citi’s September poll, project the rate staying at 6.50% through at least end-2027.
A clear break from this consensus would require either a sharper inflation rebound, a material Fed policy shift widening the interest-rate differential, or an unexpected acceleration in growth that reduces economic slack.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$14,045Data de Término
5 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Banxico’s unanimous decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% since June 2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 5 meeting.** Recent inflation prints, including the 3.26% August headline rate and core measures near 4%, remain within or close to the 2–4% target band, while the central bank’s forecasts show headline and core inflation converging to 3% only in Q4 2027. Forward guidance explicitly states that maintaining the current restrictive stance is appropriate amid persistent core pressures, economic slack, and upside risks from global trade policies, geopolitics, and potential peso volatility. Analyst surveys, including Citi’s September poll, project the rate staying at 6.50% through at least end-2027.
A clear break from this consensus would require either a sharper inflation rebound, a material Fed policy shift widening the interest-rate differential, or an unexpected acceleration in growth that reduces economic slack.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$14,045Data de Término
5 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jspResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Banxico’s unanimous decision to hold the benchmark rate at 6.50% since June 2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of no change at the November 5 meeting.** Recent inflation prints, including the 3.26% August headline rate and core measures near 4%, remain within or close to the 2–4% target band, while the central bank’s forecasts show headline and core inflation converging to 3% only in Q4 2027. Forward guidance explicitly states that maintaining the current restrictive stance is appropriate amid persistent core pressures, economic slack, and upside risks from global trade policies, geopolitics, and potential peso volatility. Analyst surveys, including Citi’s September poll, project the rate staying at 6.50% through at least end-2027. A clear break from this consensus would require either a sharper inflation rebound, a material Fed policy shift widening the interest-rate differential, or an unexpected acceleration in growth that reduces economic slack.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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