Recent inflation data and yen weakness have kept the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path after the June 2026 rate increase to 1%, with market-implied odds heavily favoring no change at the October meeting. Persistent upward risks to underlying CPI, including broadening price pressures and import costs, support expectations for another 25-basis-point hike at the September 17-18 meeting to 1.25%, after which traders anticipate a pause or deferral to December amid moderating energy impacts and yen stabilization near recent levels. Economist surveys show only about one-third seeing an October follow-up move, reinforcing the 84.5% no-change pricing while the modest 15% probability for a 25 bp increase reflects data-dependent flexibility in the BOJ’s normalization strategy.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNo change 85%
25 bps increase 15%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$79,537 Vol.
$79,537 Vol.
29 out 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
85%
25 bps increase
15%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 85%
25 bps increase 15%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$79,537 Vol.
$79,537 Vol.
29 out 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,845 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$6,079 Vol.
<1%
No change
$32,201 Vol.
85%
25 bps increase
$30,250 Vol.
15%
50+ bps increase
$7,161 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data and yen weakness have kept the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path after the June 2026 rate increase to 1%, with market-implied odds heavily favoring no change at the October meeting. Persistent upward risks to underlying CPI, including broadening price pressures and import costs, support expectations for another 25-basis-point hike at the September 17-18 meeting to 1.25%, after which traders anticipate a pause or deferral to December amid moderating energy impacts and yen stabilization near recent levels. Economist surveys show only about one-third seeing an October follow-up move, reinforcing the 84.5% no-change pricing while the modest 15% probability for a 25 bp increase reflects data-dependent flexibility in the BOJ’s normalization strategy.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$79,537Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation data and yen weakness have kept the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path after the June 2026 rate increase to 1%, with market-implied odds heavily favoring no change at the October meeting. Persistent upward risks to underlying CPI, including broadening price pressures and import costs, support expectations for another 25-basis-point hike at the September 17-18 meeting to 1.25%, after which traders anticipate a pause or deferral to December amid moderating energy impacts and yen stabilization near recent levels. Economist surveys show only about one-third seeing an October follow-up move, reinforcing the 84.5% no-change pricing while the modest 15% probability for a 25 bp increase reflects data-dependent flexibility in the BOJ’s normalization strategy.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$79,537Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data and yen weakness have kept the Bank of Japan on a gradual tightening path after the June 2026 rate increase to 1%, with market-implied odds heavily favoring no change at the October meeting. Persistent upward risks to underlying CPI, including broadening price pressures and import costs, support expectations for another 25-basis-point hike at the September 17-18 meeting to 1.25%, after which traders anticipate a pause or deferral to December amid moderating energy impacts and yen stabilization near recent levels. Economist surveys show only about one-third seeing an October follow-up move, reinforcing the 84.5% no-change pricing while the modest 15% probability for a 25 bp increase reflects data-dependent flexibility in the BOJ’s normalization strategy.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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