**Elevated maritime security risks from Houthi actions in the Red Sea, including the July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade and subsequent attacks on vessels, have constrained compliant traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, anchoring end-August daily averages near 25-30 vessels.** Data from trackers such as Kpler, MarineTraffic, and JMIC show late-August periods with 27-36 daily crossings amid a mix of sanctioned, shadow-fleet, and dark transits that obscure official counts, while mainstream tanker and container flows remain suppressed relative to 2023 baselines of roughly 60 vessels per day. This environment has produced seven-day averages in the mid-20s to low-30s through mid-to-late August, reflecting rerouting incentives and war-risk premiums that exceed 0.5-1% of hull value. Trader positioning around the 25-29 bin at 69% implied probability captures this stabilized but subdued regime, with the sub-25 outcome at 28% reflecting downside scenarios from further escalation, while higher bins command negligible odds given the persistent compliance and visibility constraints.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNº médio de navios em trânsito no Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb no final de agosto?
Nº médio de navios em trânsito no Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb no final de agosto?
25-29 69%
<25 28.4%
35-39 1.3%
40+ <1%
$37,208 Vol.
$37,208 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
28%
25-29
69%
30-34
<1%
35-39
1%
40+
<1%
25-29 69%
<25 28.4%
35-39 1.3%
40+ <1%
$37,208 Vol.
$37,208 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
$7,443 Vol.
28%
25-29
$9,168 Vol.
69%
30-34
$8,812 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$5,331 Vol.
1%
40+
$6,454 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Elevated maritime security risks from Houthi actions in the Red Sea, including the July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade and subsequent attacks on vessels, have constrained compliant traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, anchoring end-August daily averages near 25-30 vessels.**
Data from trackers such as Kpler, MarineTraffic, and JMIC show late-August periods with 27-36 daily crossings amid a mix of sanctioned, shadow-fleet, and dark transits that obscure official counts, while mainstream tanker and container flows remain suppressed relative to 2023 baselines of roughly 60 vessels per day. This environment has produced seven-day averages in the mid-20s to low-30s through mid-to-late August, reflecting rerouting incentives and war-risk premiums that exceed 0.5-1% of hull value. Trader positioning around the 25-29 bin at 69% implied probability captures this stabilized but subdued regime, with the sub-25 outcome at 28% reflecting downside scenarios from further escalation, while higher bins command negligible odds given the persistent compliance and visibility constraints.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$37,208Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFonte de resolução
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Elevated maritime security risks from Houthi actions in the Red Sea, including the July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade and subsequent attacks on vessels, have constrained compliant traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, anchoring end-August daily averages near 25-30 vessels.**
Data from trackers such as Kpler, MarineTraffic, and JMIC show late-August periods with 27-36 daily crossings amid a mix of sanctioned, shadow-fleet, and dark transits that obscure official counts, while mainstream tanker and container flows remain suppressed relative to 2023 baselines of roughly 60 vessels per day. This environment has produced seven-day averages in the mid-20s to low-30s through mid-to-late August, reflecting rerouting incentives and war-risk premiums that exceed 0.5-1% of hull value. Trader positioning around the 25-29 bin at 69% implied probability captures this stabilized but subdued regime, with the sub-25 outcome at 28% reflecting downside scenarios from further escalation, while higher bins command negligible odds given the persistent compliance and visibility constraints.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$37,208Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFonte de resolução
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated maritime security risks from Houthi actions in the Red Sea, including the July 2026 Saudi-linked blockade and subsequent attacks on vessels, have constrained compliant traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, anchoring end-August daily averages near 25-30 vessels.** Data from trackers such as Kpler, MarineTraffic, and JMIC show late-August periods with 27-36 daily crossings amid a mix of sanctioned, shadow-fleet, and dark transits that obscure official counts, while mainstream tanker and container flows remain suppressed relative to 2023 baselines of roughly 60 vessels per day. This environment has produced seven-day averages in the mid-20s to low-30s through mid-to-late August, reflecting rerouting incentives and war-risk premiums that exceed 0.5-1% of hull value. Trader positioning around the 25-29 bin at 69% implied probability captures this stabilized but subdued regime, with the sub-25 outcome at 28% reflecting downside scenarios from further escalation, while higher bins command negligible odds given the persistent compliance and visibility constraints.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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