**Copernicus Climate Change Service data released September 10 confirm August 2026 reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—the joint-highest monthly global temperature on record—driven by long-term anthropogenic greenhouse forcing plus a strengthening super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to 21.1°C.** This exceeds the >1.29°C threshold with overwhelming margin, aligning with ERA5 and supporting analyses showing record land and ocean warmth. Trader consensus at 99.4% reflects the clear observational gap from historical norms and model expectations for continued El Niño influence. Only substantial downward revisions in final datasets or an atypical baseline definition could realistically alter resolution, though cross-agency consistency makes such shifts improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAgosto de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Agosto de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
>1,29ºC 99.4%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
1,25–1,29ºC <1%
<1,10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
31 jul 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
<1%
1,20–1,24ºC
1%
1,25–1,29ºC
1%
>1,29ºC
99%
>1,29ºC 99.4%
1,20–1,24ºC <1%
1,25–1,29ºC <1%
<1,10ºC <1%
$14,173 Vol.
$14,173 Vol.
31 jul 2026
<1,10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1,15–1,19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1,20–1,24ºC
$2,099 Vol.
1%
1,25–1,29ºC
$2,783 Vol.
1%
>1,29ºC
$6,294 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Copernicus Climate Change Service data released September 10 confirm August 2026 reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—the joint-highest monthly global temperature on record—driven by long-term anthropogenic greenhouse forcing plus a strengthening super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to 21.1°C.** This exceeds the >1.29°C threshold with overwhelming margin, aligning with ERA5 and supporting analyses showing record land and ocean warmth. Trader consensus at 99.4% reflects the clear observational gap from historical norms and model expectations for continued El Niño influence. Only substantial downward revisions in final datasets or an atypical baseline definition could realistically alter resolution, though cross-agency consistency makes such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$14,173Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.**Copernicus Climate Change Service data released September 10 confirm August 2026 reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—the joint-highest monthly global temperature on record—driven by long-term anthropogenic greenhouse forcing plus a strengthening super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to 21.1°C.** This exceeds the >1.29°C threshold with overwhelming margin, aligning with ERA5 and supporting analyses showing record land and ocean warmth. Trader consensus at 99.4% reflects the clear observational gap from historical norms and model expectations for continued El Niño influence. Only substantial downward revisions in final datasets or an atypical baseline definition could realistically alter resolution, though cross-agency consistency makes such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,173Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Copernicus Climate Change Service data released September 10 confirm August 2026 reached 1.65°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline—the joint-highest monthly global temperature on record—driven by long-term anthropogenic greenhouse forcing plus a strengthening super El Niño that elevated extra-polar sea surface temperatures to 21.1°C.** This exceeds the >1.29°C threshold with overwhelming margin, aligning with ERA5 and supporting analyses showing record land and ocean warmth. Trader consensus at 99.4% reflects the clear observational gap from historical norms and model expectations for continued El Niño influence. Only substantial downward revisions in final datasets or an atypical baseline definition could realistically alter resolution, though cross-agency consistency makes such shifts improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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