Apple’s market-implied odds for ending 2026 near $4–5 trillion reflect sustained iPhone momentum and measured AI progress under new CEO John Ternus. Strong fiscal 2026 demand for the iPhone 17 series, China recovery, and services growth drove a brief $5 trillion valuation in July, while the September launch of the premium iPhone Duo foldable and iPhone 18 Pro lineup—with on-device large language model features—reinforced pricing power. Rising memory costs and supply constraints for AI silicon have introduced margin pressure, however, and traders appear to weigh these against Apple’s lower capital expenditure approach compared with hyperscalers. Holiday-quarter sales data and October earnings will serve as key near-term catalysts shaping final-year positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoUS$ 4,50–5,00T 32%
US$ 4,00–4,50T 27%
US$5,00-US$5,50T 16%
US$3,50-US$4,00T 11%
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
<US$3,50T
5%
US$3,50-US$4,00T
11%
US$ 4,00–4,50T
27%
US$ 4,50–5,00T
32%
US$5,00-US$5,50T
16%
US$ 5,50–6,00T
9%
US$ 6,00T+
6%
US$ 4,50–5,00T 32%
US$ 4,00–4,50T 27%
US$5,00-US$5,50T 16%
US$3,50-US$4,00T 11%
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
<US$3,50T
$512 Vol.
5%
US$3,50-US$4,00T
$123 Vol.
11%
US$ 4,00–4,50T
$644 Vol.
27%
US$ 4,50–5,00T
$374 Vol.
32%
US$5,00-US$5,50T
$54 Vol.
16%
US$ 5,50–6,00T
$157 Vol.
9%
US$ 6,00T+
$109 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s market-implied odds for ending 2026 near $4–5 trillion reflect sustained iPhone momentum and measured AI progress under new CEO John Ternus. Strong fiscal 2026 demand for the iPhone 17 series, China recovery, and services growth drove a brief $5 trillion valuation in July, while the September launch of the premium iPhone Duo foldable and iPhone 18 Pro lineup—with on-device large language model features—reinforced pricing power. Rising memory costs and supply constraints for AI silicon have introduced margin pressure, however, and traders appear to weigh these against Apple’s lower capital expenditure approach compared with hyperscalers. Holiday-quarter sales data and October earnings will serve as key near-term catalysts shaping final-year positioning.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ET
Volume
$1,972Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Apple’s market-implied odds for ending 2026 near $4–5 trillion reflect sustained iPhone momentum and measured AI progress under new CEO John Ternus. Strong fiscal 2026 demand for the iPhone 17 series, China recovery, and services growth drove a brief $5 trillion valuation in July, while the September launch of the premium iPhone Duo foldable and iPhone 18 Pro lineup—with on-device large language model features—reinforced pricing power. Rising memory costs and supply constraints for AI silicon have introduced margin pressure, however, and traders appear to weigh these against Apple’s lower capital expenditure approach compared with hyperscalers. Holiday-quarter sales data and October earnings will serve as key near-term catalysts shaping final-year positioning.
This market will resolve according to Apple's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$1,972Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 5, 2026, 8:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Apple’s market-implied odds for ending 2026 near $4–5 trillion reflect sustained iPhone momentum and measured AI progress under new CEO John Ternus. Strong fiscal 2026 demand for the iPhone 17 series, China recovery, and services growth drove a brief $5 trillion valuation in July, while the September launch of the premium iPhone Duo foldable and iPhone 18 Pro lineup—with on-device large language model features—reinforced pricing power. Rising memory costs and supply constraints for AI silicon have introduced margin pressure, however, and traders appear to weigh these against Apple’s lower capital expenditure approach compared with hyperscalers. Holiday-quarter sales data and October earnings will serve as key near-term catalysts shaping final-year positioning.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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