Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado2026 1 de agosto, 2 de agosto, 3 de agosto mais quente já registrado?
2026 1 de agosto, 2 de agosto, 3 de agosto mais quente já registrado?
1st hottest 100.0%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$2,464 Vol.
$2,464 Vol.
30 ago 2026
1st hottest
Yes
2nd hottest
No
3rd hottest
No
4th or lower
No
1st hottest 100.0%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
4th or lower <1%
$2,464 Vol.
$2,464 Vol.
30 ago 2026
1st hottest
$779 Vol.
Yes
2nd hottest
$578 Vol.
No
3rd hottest
$542 Vol.
No
4th or lower
$565 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$2,464Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$2,464Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
Global temperature records from authoritative monitoring networks confirm August 1, 2026, reached an unprecedented high, driving the market's 100% implied probability for the 1st hottest on record. Recent analyses of daily mean surface temperatures show this date surpassing prior maxima by a clear margin, consistent with ongoing warming trends and ENSO influences that amplified heat across key regions. Traders have aligned rapidly with the data release, as later August dates fell short of the threshold. Minor uncertainty remains around final dataset revisions or methodological adjustments by agencies like NOAA, though such changes rarely reverse established daily extremes once verified.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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