Lara Bird, the Scottish National Party candidate, commands overwhelming trader consensus at 94.5% for the 18 June 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election due to the SNP's established local organization, recent 2024 general election victory in the constituency, and intensive ground campaigning by party figures ahead of polling. The seat, created for the last general election and held by Stephen Gethins until his move to Holyrood, features a narrow prior majority over Labour, but short campaign timelines and limited opposition visibility have reinforced expectations of continuity. Other candidates, including those from Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Reform UK, trail sharply in implied probabilities. Late shifts could still occur through unusually high turnout among opposition voters or unforeseen national developments, though the current market pricing reflects strong skin-in-the-game assessment of an SNP hold.