Skip to main content
icon for Vencedor do Aberdeen South By-Election de 2026
Política·Escócia

Vencedor do Aberdeen South By-Election de 2026

icon for Vencedor do Aberdeen South By-Election de 2026
Política·Escócia

Vencedor do Aberdeen South By-Election de 2026

Douglas Lumsden 100.0%

Jorg Shelton-Eckstein <1%

Richard Gordon Thomson <1%

Jo Hart <1%

Polymarket

$31,419 Vol.

Douglas Lumsden 100.0%

Jorg Shelton-Eckstein <1%

Richard Gordon Thomson <1%

Jo Hart <1%

Polymarket

$31,419 Vol.

icon for Jorg Shelton-Eckstein

Jorg Shelton-Eckstein

$1,280 Vol.

Não

icon for Richard Gordon Thomson

Richard Gordon Thomson

$11,226 Vol.

Não

icon for Douglas Lumsden

Douglas Lumsden

$13,531 Vol.

Sim

icon for Jo Hart

Jo Hart

$1,403 Vol.

Não

icon for Nurul Hoque Ali

Nurul Hoque Ali

$1,461 Vol.

Não

icon for Mel Sullivan

Mel Sullivan

$1,266 Vol.

Não

icon for David Ballantine

David Ballantine

$1,253 Vol.

Não

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen South is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).The 2026 Aberdeen South by-election, triggered by SNP MP Stephen Flynn’s resignation after his election to the Scottish Parliament, features Richard Gordon Thomson as the SNP candidate. Thomson, a former MP for the neighboring Gordon constituency, benefits from the party’s established local organization and the seat’s recent electoral history. The contest has centered on North Sea oil and gas policy as the dominant issue, with traders pricing in an SNP hold at high implied probability. Conservative candidate Douglas Lumsden and other contenders trail significantly in market pricing, reflecting limited evidence of a shift in voter coalitions or turnout patterns ahead of the 18 June poll. Market odds remain sensitive to any late shifts in energy-related messaging or participation rates.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen South is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Volume
$31,419
Data de Término
19 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen South is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).

Resultado proposto: Não

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Não

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen South is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).The 2026 Aberdeen South by-election, triggered by SNP MP Stephen Flynn’s resignation after his election to the Scottish Parliament, features Richard Gordon Thomson as the SNP candidate. Thomson, a former MP for the neighboring Gordon constituency, benefits from the party’s established local organization and the seat’s recent electoral history. The contest has centered on North Sea oil and gas policy as the dominant issue, with traders pricing in an SNP hold at high implied probability. Conservative candidate Douglas Lumsden and other contenders trail significantly in market pricing, reflecting limited evidence of a shift in voter coalitions or turnout patterns ahead of the 18 June poll. Market odds remain sensitive to any late shifts in energy-related messaging or participation rates.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen South is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).
Volume
$31,419
Data de Término
19 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen South is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Aberdeen South parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Aberdeen City Council (https://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/).

Resultado proposto: Não

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Não

Relacionado

icon for Haverá 5 ou menos eleições suplementares parlamentares no Reino Unido em 2026?

Haverá 5 ou menos eleições suplementares parlamentares no Reino Unido em 2026?

51%
Sim
icon for Will Braeden Caley win the 2026 North Vancouver—Capilano by-election?

Will Braeden Caley win the 2026 North Vancouver—Capilano by-election?

99%
icon for A Georgia Tree vencerá a eleição suplementar estadual de Secret Harbour em 2026?

A Georgia Tree vencerá a eleição suplementar estadual de Secret Harbour em 2026?

89%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor do Aberdeen South By-Election de 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Douglas Lumsden" at 100%, followed by "Jorg Shelton-Eckstein" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor do Aberdeen South By-Election de 2026" has generated $31.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor do Aberdeen South By-Election de 2026," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor do Aberdeen South By-Election de 2026" is "Douglas Lumsden" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jorg Shelton-Eckstein" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor do Aberdeen South By-Election de 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.