iutwpfal

Joined Jan 2026·2.1K views

One eye in da mirror as I watch myself gavotte

$13.6K

Positions Value

$3,536.34

Biggest Win

1,090

Predictions

Profit/Loss

-$139.49

Past Day

Current

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?

Yes 77.5¢

5,391.6 shares

77.5¢

86.4¢

$4,658.37$479.41 (11.47%)

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?

Yes 77.5¢

5,391.6 shares

$4,658.37$479.41 (11.47%)

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

Yes 52.6¢

1,661.6 shares

52.6¢

54.5¢

$905.59$31.28 (3.58%)

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

Yes 52.6¢

1,661.6 shares

$905.59$31.28 (3.58%)

Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?

Yes 48.5¢

1,220.2 shares

48.5¢

74¢

$902.94$311.47 (52.66%)

Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?

Yes 48.5¢

1,220.2 shares

$902.94$311.47 (52.66%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?

No 65¢

900.0 shares

65¢

85.8¢

$771.75$186.75 (31.92%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?

No 65¢

900.0 shares

$771.75$186.75 (31.92%)

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

Yes 77.1¢

873.6 shares

77.1¢

77¢

$672.63-$0.61 (-0.09%)

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?

Yes 77.1¢

873.6 shares

$672.63-$0.61 (-0.09%)

Will Trump deport 400-500k people?

Yes 47.6¢

981.4 shares

47.6¢

60¢

$588.83$121.46 (25.99%)

Will Trump deport 400-500k people?

Yes 47.6¢

981.4 shares

$588.83$121.46 (25.99%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?

No 92¢

538.9 shares

92¢

97.9¢

$527.26$31.53 (6.36%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?

No 92¢

538.9 shares

$527.26$31.53 (6.36%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?

Yes 88.1¢

667.6 shares

88.1¢

76¢

$507.38-$80.67 (-13.72%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?

Yes 88.1¢

667.6 shares

$507.38-$80.67 (-13.72%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?

No 73.7¢

576.0 shares

73.7¢

87¢

$501.13$76.89 (18.12%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?

No 73.7¢

576.0 shares

$501.13$76.89 (18.12%)

Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?

No 33.9¢

543.5 shares

33.9¢

81.5¢

$442.97$258.83 (140.56%)

Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?

No 33.9¢

543.5 shares

$442.97$258.83 (140.56%)

Zoe Kravitz and Harry Styles engaged by August 31?

Yes 64.2¢

481.8 shares

64.2¢

91.5¢

$440.86$131.62 (42.56%)

Zoe Kravitz and Harry Styles engaged by August 31?

Yes 64.2¢

481.8 shares

$440.86$131.62 (42.56%)

Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

No 74.4¢

463.9 shares

74.4¢

88.3¢

$409.59$64.37 (18.65%)

Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

No 74.4¢

463.9 shares

$409.59$64.37 (18.65%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?

No 68.3¢

431.0 shares

68.3¢

86.5¢

$372.82$78.37 (26.62%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?

No 68.3¢

431.0 shares

$372.82$78.37 (26.62%)

Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?

Yes 40.5¢

1,885.3 shares

40.5¢

12.8¢

$240.38-$523.83 (-68.55%)

Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?

Yes 40.5¢

1,885.3 shares

$240.38-$523.83 (-68.55%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?

Yes 89.7¢

212.1 shares

89.7¢

86¢

$182.44-$7.91 (-4.15%)

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?

Yes 89.7¢

212.1 shares

$182.44-$7.91 (-4.15%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?

No 66.3¢

202.8 shares

66.3¢

88¢

$178.50$44.10 (32.81%)

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?

No 66.3¢

202.8 shares

$178.50$44.10 (32.81%)

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

Yes 19¢

370.4 shares

19¢

35.5¢

$131.48$61.11 (86.84%)

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

Yes 19¢

370.4 shares

$131.48$61.11 (86.84%)

Will Trump deport 300-400k people?

Yes 50¢

677.3 shares

50¢

17.5¢

$118.52-$220.11 (-65%)

Will Trump deport 300-400k people?

Yes 50¢

677.3 shares

$118.52-$220.11 (-65%)

Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

No 91¢

102.0 shares

91¢

94¢

$95.88$3.06 (3.3%)

Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?

No 91¢

102.0 shares

$95.88$3.06 (3.3%)

Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Yes 14.7¢

1,074.8 shares

14.7¢

8.5¢

$91.36-$66.72 (-42.21%)

Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Yes 14.7¢

1,074.8 shares

$91.36-$66.72 (-42.21%)