balthazar

Joined Jan 2025·36.4K views

$322.5K

Positions Value

$107.5K

Biggest Win

84,957

Markets Traded

Total PnL: +$1.1M
Total Volume: 75.5M

Profit/Loss

$7,979.91

Past Day

Market

Avg

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

No 50¢

41,000.0 shares

50¢

90.5¢

$37,105.00$16,605.00 (81%)

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

No 50¢

41,000.0 shares

$37,105.00$16,605.00 (81%)

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 85.5¢

36,293.9 shares

85.5¢

79.6¢

$28,871.83-$2,155.59 (-6.95%)

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 85.5¢

36,293.9 shares

$28,871.83-$2,155.59 (-6.95%)

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 77.8¢

17,804.2 shares

77.8¢

86.1¢

$15,329.38$1,483.57 (10.71%)

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 77.8¢

17,804.2 shares

$15,329.38$1,483.57 (10.71%)

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 81.6¢

13,568.5 shares

81.6¢

86.5¢

$11,736.71$659.74 (5.96%)

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 81.6¢

13,568.5 shares

$11,736.71$659.74 (5.96%)

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Yes 69.5¢

12,364.9 shares

69.5¢

77¢

$9,520.98$930.84 (10.84%)

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Yes 69.5¢

12,364.9 shares

$9,520.98$930.84 (10.84%)

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Yes 11.1¢

41,718.3 shares

11.1¢

19.5¢

$8,135.06$3,496.05 (75.36%)

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Yes 11.1¢

41,718.3 shares

$8,135.06$3,496.05 (75.36%)

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?

Yes 63.8¢

7,834.2 shares

63.8¢

90.5¢

$7,089.99$2,092.26 (41.86%)

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?

Yes 63.8¢

7,834.2 shares

$7,089.99$2,092.26 (41.86%)

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 32.2¢

8,430.9 shares

32.2¢

61¢

$5,142.84$2,424.79 (89.21%)

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 32.2¢

8,430.9 shares

$5,142.84$2,424.79 (89.21%)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes 61.7¢

6,803.3 shares

61.7¢

71.5¢

$4,864.38$666.07 (15.87%)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes 61.7¢

6,803.3 shares

$4,864.38$666.07 (15.87%)

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 75.4¢

5,424.7 shares

75.4¢

79.5¢

$4,312.60$220.40 (5.39%)

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 75.4¢

5,424.7 shares

$4,312.60$220.40 (5.39%)

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Yes 50¢

41,000.0 shares

50¢

9.5¢

$3,895.00-$16,605.00 (-81%)

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Yes 50¢

41,000.0 shares

$3,895.00-$16,605.00 (-81%)

Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 23.7¢

18,940.6 shares

23.7¢

19.5¢

$3,693.41-$804.22 (-17.88%)

Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 23.7¢

18,940.6 shares

$3,693.41-$804.22 (-17.88%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

No 76.1¢

3,863.3 shares

76.1¢

92.5¢

$3,573.53$633.68 (21.56%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

No 76.1¢

3,863.3 shares

$3,573.53$633.68 (21.56%)

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

No 75.9¢

3,549.8 shares

75.9¢

99.9¢

$3,544.49$851.95 (31.64%)

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?

No 75.9¢

3,549.8 shares

$3,544.49$851.95 (31.64%)

Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?

No 78¢

3,509.9 shares

78¢

100¢

$3,508.16$770.81 (28.16%)

Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?

No 78¢

3,509.9 shares

$3,508.16$770.81 (28.16%)

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Yes 91.8¢

3,571.4 shares

91.8¢

96.6¢

$3,448.19$170.32 (5.2%)

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Yes 91.8¢

3,571.4 shares

$3,448.19$170.32 (5.2%)

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Yes 26.4¢

14,123.0 shares

26.4¢

23¢

$3,248.28-$487.13 (-13.04%)

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Yes 26.4¢

14,123.0 shares

$3,248.28-$487.13 (-13.04%)

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

No 62.7¢

3,713.7 shares

62.7¢

72.5¢

$2,692.45$362.05 (15.54%)

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

No 62.7¢

3,713.7 shares

$2,692.45$362.05 (15.54%)

Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Yes 95.3¢

2,679.3 shares

95.3¢

98.3¢

$2,633.75$79.70 (3.12%)

Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Yes 95.3¢

2,679.3 shares

$2,633.75$79.70 (3.12%)

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

No 64.5¢

2,739.9 shares

64.5¢

96.1¢

$2,631.65$863.08 (48.8%)

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

No 64.5¢

2,739.9 shares

$2,631.65$863.08 (48.8%)