tetlock
Dołączył Mar 2026·0 wyświetleń
$123.39
Wartość pozycji
$1.69
Największa wygrana
19
Prognozy
Zysk/Strata
Ostatni dzień
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?
Yes 49¢
27.3 udziały49¢
91¢
$24.81$11.45 (85.71%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 39.0 on May 8, 2026?
Yes 49¢
27.3 udziały$24.81$11.45 (85.71%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 56¢
47.7 udziały56¢
47.5¢
$22.66-$4.06 (-15.18%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
No 56¢
47.7 udziały$22.66-$4.06 (-15.18%)
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Yes 70¢
19.1 udziały$14.22$0.86 (6.43%)
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?
No 71¢
18.8 udziały$13.64$0.28 (2.11%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Yes 44¢
30.4 udziały$12.15-$1.21 (-9.09%)
51.1¢
22¢
$11.63-$15.36 (-56.91%)
$11.63-$15.36 (-56.91%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
No 45¢
29.7 udziały45¢
33¢
$9.80-$3.56 (-26.67%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
No 45¢
29.7 udziały$9.80-$3.56 (-26.67%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?
No 55¢
23.6 udziały$9.57-$3.43 (-26.36%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
No 86¢
2.3 udziały$1.92-$0.08 (-4.07%)
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
No 63.1¢
3.2 udziały$1.85-$0.15 (-7.53%)
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Yes 74.9¢
2.8 udziały74.9¢
22¢
$0.63-$1.50 (-70.63%)
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Yes 74.9¢
2.8 udziały$0.63-$1.50 (-70.63%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?
Yes 28¢
6.4 udziały$0.51-$1.29 (-71.43%)