Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran relations remain the dominant driver of WTI crude prices, with recent escalations limiting shipments and supporting a second consecutive weekly gain of roughly 5%. As of August 21, WTI traded near $86–87 per barrel after closing above $84 the prior session, reflecting tight inventories and elevated crack spreads amid strong diesel margins. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent averaging around $85 per barrel for Q3 2026 under persistent supply constraints, though any de-escalation could ease backwardation and pressure prices lower. Traders are monitoring weekly inventory releases and Middle East developments for resolution signals in this high-volatility environment.