Recent surges in the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.2%, driven by sticky inflation readings including September PCE at elevated levels and resilient labor data, have pushed 30-year fixed mortgage rates to 7.28% as of Freddie Mac’s October 1 survey—the highest since late 2023 and up sharply from sub-6% levels earlier in 2026. The Fed’s September 25-basis-point hike and market-implied odds favoring further tightening rather than cuts have reinforced higher-for-longer expectations, widening the mortgage spread over Treasuries. Key near-term catalysts include the October CPI release, upcoming FOMC communications, and any shifts in Treasury supply or risk sentiment that could alter the yield curve trajectory before year-end.