Russian forces have conducted repeated attacks and strikes near Stavky, a village northeast of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, but ISW assessments through mid-2026 show Ukrainian positions holding the immediate area and adjacent roads. Advances in the Lyman direction remain marginal amid broader Russian operations focused on infiltration tactics rather than rapid mechanized pushes. Trader probabilities for Russian entry by specific deadlines reflect the theater-wide slowdown in territorial gains—down to roughly 3 square kilometers per day in early 2026—driven by Ukrainian drone interdiction, fortified defenses, and Russian logistical strains from strikes on bridges and supply routes. Key variables include sustained Russian pressure toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis, Ukrainian counteractions, and any shifts in force concentration that could alter the local frontline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill Russia enter Stavky by...?
Will Russia enter Stavky by...?
$21,687 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
51%
$21,687 Wol.
September 30
$4,483 Wol.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated attacks and strikes near Stavky, a village northeast of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, but ISW assessments through mid-2026 show Ukrainian positions holding the immediate area and adjacent roads. Advances in the Lyman direction remain marginal amid broader Russian operations focused on infiltration tactics rather than rapid mechanized pushes. Trader probabilities for Russian entry by specific deadlines reflect the theater-wide slowdown in territorial gains—down to roughly 3 square kilometers per day in early 2026—driven by Ukrainian drone interdiction, fortified defenses, and Russian logistical strains from strikes on bridges and supply routes. Key variables include sustained Russian pressure toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis, Ukrainian counteractions, and any shifts in force concentration that could alter the local frontline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 24, 2026, 9:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,687Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 24, 2026, 9:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted repeated attacks and strikes near Stavky, a village northeast of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, but ISW assessments through mid-2026 show Ukrainian positions holding the immediate area and adjacent roads. Advances in the Lyman direction remain marginal amid broader Russian operations focused on infiltration tactics rather than rapid mechanized pushes. Trader probabilities for Russian entry by specific deadlines reflect the theater-wide slowdown in territorial gains—down to roughly 3 square kilometers per day in early 2026—driven by Ukrainian drone interdiction, fortified defenses, and Russian logistical strains from strikes on bridges and supply routes. Key variables include sustained Russian pressure toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis, Ukrainian counteractions, and any shifts in force concentration that could alter the local frontline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Wolumen
$21,687Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 24, 2026, 9:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have conducted repeated attacks and strikes near Stavky, a village northeast of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, but ISW assessments through mid-2026 show Ukrainian positions holding the immediate area and adjacent roads. Advances in the Lyman direction remain marginal amid broader Russian operations focused on infiltration tactics rather than rapid mechanized pushes. Trader probabilities for Russian entry by specific deadlines reflect the theater-wide slowdown in territorial gains—down to roughly 3 square kilometers per day in early 2026—driven by Ukrainian drone interdiction, fortified defenses, and Russian logistical strains from strikes on bridges and supply routes. Key variables include sustained Russian pressure toward the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis, Ukrainian counteractions, and any shifts in force concentration that could alter the local frontline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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