Nigel Farage secured the Clacton seat for Reform UK in the 2024 general election with 46.2% of the vote and now contests the 13 August 2026 by-election he triggered by resigning amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared gifts. Trader consensus at 98% for an increased vote share rests on Reform UK's established local organization, Farage's personal profile in the constituency, the absence of major-party challengers, and the limited competition from novelty candidates. Scheduled polling and the by-election's resolution window leave little time for external shifts. Even so, unusually low turnout, late developments in the ongoing investigation, or stronger-than-expected independent performances could still alter the final margin relative to the 2024 baseline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano98% szansa
$23,567 Wol.
$23,567 Wol.
Aug 13, 2026
98% szansa
$23,567 Wol.
$23,567 Wol.
Aug 13, 2026
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage secured the Clacton seat for Reform UK in the 2024 general election with 46.2% of the vote and now contests the 13 August 2026 by-election he triggered by resigning amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared gifts. Trader consensus at 98% for an increased vote share rests on Reform UK's established local organization, Farage's personal profile in the constituency, the absence of major-party challengers, and the limited competition from novelty candidates. Scheduled polling and the by-election's resolution window leave little time for external shifts. Even so, unusually low turnout, late developments in the ongoing investigation, or stronger-than-expected independent performances could still alter the final margin relative to the 2024 baseline.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Rynek otwarty: Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$23,567Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage secured the Clacton seat for Reform UK in the 2024 general election with 46.2% of the vote and now contests the 13 August 2026 by-election he triggered by resigning amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared gifts. Trader consensus at 98% for an increased vote share rests on Reform UK's established local organization, Farage's personal profile in the constituency, the absence of major-party challengers, and the limited competition from novelty candidates. Scheduled polling and the by-election's resolution window leave little time for external shifts. Even so, unusually low turnout, late developments in the ongoing investigation, or stronger-than-expected independent performances could still alter the final margin relative to the 2024 baseline.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Wolumen
$23,567Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nigel Farage secured the Clacton seat for Reform UK in the 2024 general election with 46.2% of the vote and now contests the 13 August 2026 by-election he triggered by resigning amid a parliamentary standards investigation into undeclared gifts. Trader consensus at 98% for an increased vote share rests on Reform UK's established local organization, Farage's personal profile in the constituency, the absence of major-party challengers, and the limited competition from novelty candidates. Scheduled polling and the by-election's resolution window leave little time for external shifts. Even so, unusually low turnout, late developments in the ongoing investigation, or stronger-than-expected independent performances could still alter the final margin relative to the 2024 baseline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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