Recent polling from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA ahead of the September 20, 2026, Landtag election shows the AfD at 36–38 percent, the SPD at 33–34 percent, the Left at 9–10 percent, the CDU at 7 percent, the Greens at 5 percent, and the BSW at 4 percent. These figures project the AfD to roughly 29–33 seats in the 71-seat chamber, well short of the 36 needed for an absolute majority. Multiple parties remain above the 5 percent threshold, diluting the AfD’s seat share under standard proportional allocation, while other established parties continue to reject cooperation. The nine-day timeline before voting limits the scope for abrupt shifts in voter distribution or turnout that would be required to close the gap. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent on “No” aligns with these consistent survey trends and the structural arithmetic of German state elections.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano3% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
3% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA ahead of the September 20, 2026, Landtag election shows the AfD at 36–38 percent, the SPD at 33–34 percent, the Left at 9–10 percent, the CDU at 7 percent, the Greens at 5 percent, and the BSW at 4 percent. These figures project the AfD to roughly 29–33 seats in the 71-seat chamber, well short of the 36 needed for an absolute majority. Multiple parties remain above the 5 percent threshold, diluting the AfD’s seat share under standard proportional allocation, while other established parties continue to reject cooperation. The nine-day timeline before voting limits the scope for abrupt shifts in voter distribution or turnout that would be required to close the gap. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent on “No” aligns with these consistent survey trends and the structural arithmetic of German state elections.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,451Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polling from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA ahead of the September 20, 2026, Landtag election shows the AfD at 36–38 percent, the SPD at 33–34 percent, the Left at 9–10 percent, the CDU at 7 percent, the Greens at 5 percent, and the BSW at 4 percent. These figures project the AfD to roughly 29–33 seats in the 71-seat chamber, well short of the 36 needed for an absolute majority. Multiple parties remain above the 5 percent threshold, diluting the AfD’s seat share under standard proportional allocation, while other established parties continue to reject cooperation. The nine-day timeline before voting limits the scope for abrupt shifts in voter distribution or turnout that would be required to close the gap. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent on “No” aligns with these consistent survey trends and the structural arithmetic of German state elections.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election for the Landtag does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Wolumen
$3,451Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 6, 2026, 8:51 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Recent polling from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Infratest dimap, and INSA ahead of the September 20, 2026, Landtag election shows the AfD at 36–38 percent, the SPD at 33–34 percent, the Left at 9–10 percent, the CDU at 7 percent, the Greens at 5 percent, and the BSW at 4 percent. These figures project the AfD to roughly 29–33 seats in the 71-seat chamber, well short of the 36 needed for an absolute majority. Multiple parties remain above the 5 percent threshold, diluting the AfD’s seat share under standard proportional allocation, while other established parties continue to reject cooperation. The nine-day timeline before voting limits the scope for abrupt shifts in voter distribution or turnout that would be required to close the gap. Trader consensus at 97.5 percent on “No” aligns with these consistent survey trends and the structural arithmetic of German state elections.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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