The market-implied odds of 99.2% for no hurricane forming by May 31 reflect the official start of Atlantic hurricane season on June 1 and current environmental conditions that suppress tropical cyclogenesis. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows no organized systems or favorable setups in the basin, with sea surface temperatures and wind shear patterns typical for late May. Historical records confirm pre-season hurricanes are rare, occurring in only a handful of years since reliable satellite tracking began. Model consensus from NOAA and other agencies indicates any development would require unexpected rapid organization in the final days, a low-probability scenario given the short remaining window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$51,669 Wol.
$51,669 Wol.
May 31, 2026
$51,669 Wol.
$51,669 Wol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The market-implied odds of 99.2% for no hurricane forming by May 31 reflect the official start of Atlantic hurricane season on June 1 and current environmental conditions that suppress tropical cyclogenesis. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows no organized systems or favorable setups in the basin, with sea surface temperatures and wind shear patterns typical for late May. Historical records confirm pre-season hurricanes are rare, occurring in only a handful of years since reliable satellite tracking began. Model consensus from NOAA and other agencies indicates any development would require unexpected rapid organization in the final days, a low-probability scenario given the short remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Wolumen
$51,669Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The market-implied odds of 99.2% for no hurricane forming by May 31 reflect the official start of Atlantic hurricane season on June 1 and current environmental conditions that suppress tropical cyclogenesis. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows no organized systems or favorable setups in the basin, with sea surface temperatures and wind shear patterns typical for late May. Historical records confirm pre-season hurricanes are rare, occurring in only a handful of years since reliable satellite tracking began. Model consensus from NOAA and other agencies indicates any development would require unexpected rapid organization in the final days, a low-probability scenario given the short remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Wolumen
$51,669Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied odds of 99.2% for no hurricane forming by May 31 reflect the official start of Atlantic hurricane season on June 1 and current environmental conditions that suppress tropical cyclogenesis. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows no organized systems or favorable setups in the basin, with sea surface temperatures and wind shear patterns typical for late May. Historical records confirm pre-season hurricanes are rare, occurring in only a handful of years since reliable satellite tracking began. Model consensus from NOAA and other agencies indicates any development would require unexpected rapid organization in the final days, a low-probability scenario given the short remaining window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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