Recent polling averages project roughly a dozen parties clearing Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold for the 120-seat Knesset on October 27, with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud each averaging 21–22 seats as the largest lists. Neither the outgoing right-religious bloc (Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism–Zehut, Shas, UTJ) nor the main Zionist opposition grouping consistently reaches the 61 seats required for a majority, leaving outcomes dependent on turnout, surplus-vote pacts due October 16, and whether smaller lists such as the Hendel–Zelekha Reservists–Economic alliance or Amcha Israel cross the threshold. Arab parties (Joint List, Ra’am) are forecast around 13 seats and remain outside both blocs. The final campaign period features competing claims over security performance, Haredi draft issues, and overseas voting starting October 20, all of which could shift marginal mandates in the proportional system.