Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026 anchors its 94.5% implied probability for third place among 2026 releases. That debut topped the year’s early benchmarks, trailing only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $131 million start while outpacing every subsequent wide release tracked through mid-September. Strong reviews, an A CinemaScore, and family audience appeal have kept its total on a trajectory that later fall titles such as Practical Magic 2 ($30 million) and upcoming entries like Resident Evil or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping would need unprecedented tracking to overtake. An upset would require an unforeseen December or holiday blockbuster exceeding roughly $160 million domestically, a threshold no current slate has approached.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.2%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.0%
$30,451 Wol.
$30,451 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
3%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.2%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.0%
$30,451 Wol.
$30,451 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Toy Story 5
$19,205 Wol.
95%
Dune: Messiah
$2,118 Wol.
3%
Avengers: Doomsday
$1,698 Wol.
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$1,645 Wol.
1%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$1,874 Wol.
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$2,276 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026 anchors its 94.5% implied probability for third place among 2026 releases. That debut topped the year’s early benchmarks, trailing only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $131 million start while outpacing every subsequent wide release tracked through mid-September. Strong reviews, an A CinemaScore, and family audience appeal have kept its total on a trajectory that later fall titles such as Practical Magic 2 ($30 million) and upcoming entries like Resident Evil or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping would need unprecedented tracking to overtake. An upset would require an unforeseen December or holiday blockbuster exceeding roughly $160 million domestically, a threshold no current slate has approached.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Wolumen
$30,451Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026 anchors its 94.5% implied probability for third place among 2026 releases. That debut topped the year’s early benchmarks, trailing only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $131 million start while outpacing every subsequent wide release tracked through mid-September. Strong reviews, an A CinemaScore, and family audience appeal have kept its total on a trajectory that later fall titles such as Practical Magic 2 ($30 million) and upcoming entries like Resident Evil or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping would need unprecedented tracking to overtake. An upset would require an unforeseen December or holiday blockbuster exceeding roughly $160 million domestically, a threshold no current slate has approached.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Wolumen
$30,451Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s franchise-record $160 million domestic opening in June 2026 anchors its 94.5% implied probability for third place among 2026 releases. That debut topped the year’s early benchmarks, trailing only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million launch and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $131 million start while outpacing every subsequent wide release tracked through mid-September. Strong reviews, an A CinemaScore, and family audience appeal have kept its total on a trajectory that later fall titles such as Practical Magic 2 ($30 million) and upcoming entries like Resident Evil or The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping would need unprecedented tracking to overtake. An upset would require an unforeseen December or holiday blockbuster exceeding roughly $160 million domestically, a threshold no current slate has approached.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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